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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (13706)	1/19/2002 8:11:31 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

siliconinvestor.com <Greenspan Remarks on Economy Misunderstood Jan 19 11:16am ET WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A recent speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan that helped undermine stock prices sounded more pessimistic than intended about prospects for a U.S. recovery, The Washington Post reported on Saturday. Several unnamed Federal Reserve sources told the newspaper the market had "over-interpreted" what the chairman had said in Jan. 11 remarks in San Francisco in which he seemed to emphasize "significant risks" to the economy. Stock prices fell steeply after the speech, partly because of what investors interpreted as a cautious tone. Bond traders concluded Greenspan was signaling the Fed would lower interest rates again later this month. "According to several sources, it is much more likely that the chairman will propose that the Fed's target for overnight rates be left unchanged when the central bank's policymakers meet Jan. 29 and 30," the Post said in its Saturday editions. That would sit well with many of the other 16 policymakers who will attend the meeting, the sources told the newspaper. Nevertheless, some of the sources cautioned, a rate cut cannot be completely ruled out, the Post said. Part of the confusion over the speech was due to the subtlety of Greenspan's intended message that the recession was likely to end soon, but that a quick, strong rebound was not assured, the Post said. Greenspan, who is keenly aware that his public utterances are closely parsed by the markets and often move global stock and bond prices, originally drafted a more optimistic-sounding speech about the prospects for recovery, the Post's sources said. But the more upbeat tone raised worries that markets would expect a sharper upturn in economic growth than Greenspan foresees. So the speech was altered and much of the optimism leaked away, the sources said. ./.. contd... > That'll make the markets jump. Interest rates now at the bottom and increases on the way. They'll come thick and fast once they start [perhaps not as fast as on the way down] Mq

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (13706)	1/19/2002 11:57:36 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Actually the folks around here have been saying Greenspan has chosen the wrong path [too inflationary] since before the LTCM bailout in '98, and especially since then. They predicted the bubble and that it would burst well before hand. It's mostly Austrian economics. Just FYI DAK

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (13706)	1/20/2002 4:01:27 AM
From: oldirtybastard	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

I did not assert that he was senile, though it's an option, better read my post again. this part of his speech from Jan. 11 2002 is unadulterated horsesh*t (nice attempt to soothe the burning valuation problem, read between the lines, too bad the earnings won't ever come): Still, the evidence strongly suggests that new technologies will present ample opportunities to earn enhanced rates of return. Indeed, anecdotal reports from businesses around the country suggest that the exploitation of available networking and other information technologies was only partially completed when the cyclical retrenchment of the past year began. Many business managers are still of the view, according to a recent survey of purchasing managers, that less than half of currently available new, and presumably profitable, supply chain technologies have been put into use. While these opportunities remain abundant, they will now play out against the backdrop of a major uncertainty that we all must deal with these days--the specter of further terrorist incidents on American soil. It simply is not possible to predict whether there will be any such incidents or to forecast their possible consequences for the economy. But we can have little doubt that the tragic events of September 11 have left obvious marks on the economy that will not soon fade even though some of the initial impact of the shock has receded. Importantly, as I suggested shortly after the event, adjustments to new levels of perceived risk will cause a one-time downward shift in the level of productivity. this from Dec 5 2000 is enough to induce nausea: Moreover, despite recent short-term earnings disappointments, many corporate managers appear not to have measurably altered their long-standing optimism on the future state of technology. At least this is the impression one gets from the persistent upward revision through most of this year of security analysts' long-term earnings projections. Analysts, one must presume, obtain most of their insights from corporate managers, who are most intimately aware of the potential gains from technological synergies and networking economies. According to IBES, a Wall Street firm, the three- to five-year average earnings projections of more than a thousand analysts, though exhibiting some signs of flattening in recent months, have generally held firm. Such expectations, should they persist, bode well for continued capital deepening and sustained growth of structural productivity over the longer term. Admittedly, however, shifts in the growth of structural productivity are clearly visible only in retrospect. there are many more examples but I don't need the typing or reading practice cheers