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To: sun-tzu who wrote (145012)1/21/2002 11:26:03 AM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
I think it is what everyone tries to do and would like to be able to do ... to even make a decent attempt at it takes a lot of time I don't have. Comment I made earlier thinking an intermediate bull run might last until mid-Feb has more to do with how long I suspect things can be spun positive by the media, not chart reading -- but you're right -- I'm trying to do the same thing -- different approach. Short will be "right" come August -- if you can time your entry better you make more money ... like I said -- that's the attraction.

But is making a bearish prediction based on macro. media factors somehow less academic than faith in expansion of the money supply or dogged belief in sentiment indicators or "tape reading?"

main observation I was trying to make is that many folks who claim to trade on predictions of such "turns" don't really -- they momo invest -- go with a trend over a timeframe that is comfortable for them.

I think you are an exception. I see you calling for turns and putting your money on it. I think that is commendable -- I'm not a trader -- would like to learn, but current employment prevents me from moving on such shorter timeframes