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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (11828)	1/21/2002 5:03:31 PM
From: hdrjr	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

jim p, I agree on the starting entry point of XTO, I had 14.5ish with load the boat if it retests 12.5 area which is triple bottom dating back to December 2000. I had a three bagger with XTO last go around and believe we could see that again in the next 18-24 months. May have to cut my TER short short however if next week is the first buying op. I would rather not be in too deep right now. On a subject, not really OT. You may remember that I am in land development engineering in Central Texas with national and statewide clients. The last few years Williamson/Travis/Hays county region has been one of the fastest new home building areas in the nation, except Las Vegas and one other I can't remember. In the last six months we have seen the subdivision part of business slow, then dry up altogether. KB, Continental, Centex, and Lennar are the firms that I have dealings with on a weekly basis. Basically, they are in an extreme tightening mode, it appears, with no new development starts unless. Now I deal in producing lots which there is a substantial backlog regionally, and the above companies will continue to put homes on those lots, but we(my peers included) are not putting any new lots on the ground. It appears if this region is representative of most of the US, there will be a home building drop off in the next six to 12 months. that is how long it takes to go from raw land to streets etc, depending on area. When times are good a lot of builders have a home sold before they start construction, however it takes 25K to 35K per lot of upfront money (for starter and first move-up homes) just to get to the home building stage which is 15 to 20% of the homes price. Therefore in unsure times we just don't see large outlays on new subd.s Not unlike drilling business I guess. Sorry for the ramble, no new subdivisions to work on! hdr