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To: Tradelite who wrote (145144)	1/22/2002 12:28:06 PM
From: At_The_Ask	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Their was an article in the Washington Post yesterday touting the safety of most banks due the fact that the majority of their loans are residential real estate. I guess the presumption is that fnm must be really safe.

To: Tradelite who wrote (145144)	1/22/2002 2:00:47 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

<. If you are looking for a repeat of that bubble and think this situation is repeating itself today, I would say it's not likely. There is very little speculative buying, selling, lending and churning in the real estate market today, because people remember what happened the last time.> Last time there were silly tax breaks for accelerated depreciation which has all been washed away. We will never see an opportunity like that again IMO. That said, the financial engineering going on at FNM dwarfs that of the past period. They've got almost 2 TRILLION in mortgages they're hoping don't give them any problems going into a recession.... how deep it is will be very important to FNM in my opinion. DAK

To: Tradelite who wrote (145144)	1/22/2002 2:19:28 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

<<There is very little speculative buying, selling, lending and churning in the real estate market today>> Would beg to dis-agree. The churn in real estate is insane; existing home sales the last 4 years (1997-2000) have been 4.9mm; 5.6mm; 5.9mm; and 5.8mm. and we're looking at over 6.0mm this year. from 1987 through 1996 (so 10 prior years, INCLUDING the late 1980s speculative real estate boom) existing home sales averaged 3.9mm, were never less than 3.3mm and never more than 4.7mm. that sure seems like a lot of churn to me. as far as speculative lending goes, all i can say is look at the 120% LTV loans that are out there. what else can you call lending against a non-productive asset that does not produce cash flow for 120% of its value but speculative? as another example of speculation, i always just hold up my own home. bought for a shade under $600k in mid-1999, my wife and i have added a touch of paint, sanded the floors, fixed one bathroom, and put new cabinets and appliances in the kitchen. appraised value -- over $1mm. for 1700 whole square feet. and yes, i took the money. the excesses in the real estate market are going to CRUSH the US economy, of course IMHO. Cheers