Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chojiro who wrote (111368)	1/22/2002 10:32:52 PM
From: Keith Feral	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

With over 14 million new CDMA subs in the 4th quarter alone, I think the analysts forgot that CDMA has grown beyond the US. Growth in South America, Asia, and Europe picked up quite a bit in the 4th quarter. Korea 1X shipments must have gone through the roof. All the negative BS about PCS and VZ having a shitty 4th quarter is irrelevant now that CDMA is taking on global dimensions. The reason I am in the stock is for the deployment of CDMA2000 in current spectrum in N America, China, Japan, Korea, South America, and Europe. Also, I am anticipating the near term success of WCDMA in new spectrum. I believe that WCDMA will help CDMA2000 maintain it's global growth of new subs north of 150 million in 2002 (1% global penetration), 200 million in 2003 (5% GSM penetration), and 265 million in 2004 (10% GSM penetration). I can't imagine any situation in economics in which such a large increase in demand would not lead to a cyclical recovery in the price of 3G phones. I can just hear the cell phone makers clamoring about component shortages again in 12 o 18 months. <ng> As for accounting practices, the only reason people are getting sick of write-offs is because we are in a recession. Fortunatley, the government has given companies like AOL the green light to write off as much good will as they want in a single quarter. Many companies have compressed 10 years of amortization into a single write-off. No one has ever made money shorting the market coming out of a recession. The improvements to consumer electronics will lead to a much better demand scenario for computers, wireless equipment, and other accessories. The recovery in the pc market and the wireless market will have the biggest impact. As demand for these improved products encourages 24/7 consumption of bandwidth, maybe even the capital spending companies will return to health.

To: chojiro who wrote (111368)	1/22/2002 11:02:33 PM
From: JohnG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH RATES and Mr. Market's Tom Foolery: CDMA: 6/1/2001 96.3MM subscribers 9/1/2001 103.18 MM 1/1/2002 117MM (Per Perry La Forge) Growth rate for last 7 mo = 117/96.3 = 1.218 OR taking the 1/7 power, 1.02857 monthly OR 1.402 annual rate Growth rate for last 4 mo =117/103.18 = 1.134 OR taking the 1/4 power, 1.03194 monthly OR 1.458 annual rate THUS CDMA is growing at a 40% to 45% annual rate with a rapid acceleration in both new and equipment upgrade subscribers due promptly due to upgrades from 95A to 1X RTT and China start up. Put simply, ASIC sales in 2002 should jump smartly. Also a few ASICS could be thrown in for India and South America TDMA to CDMA conversions. GSM: 7/1/2001 564 MM subscribers apx 1/1/2002 646 MM subscribers Growth rate for last 6 mo = 646/564 = 1.1453 OR taking the 1/6 power. 1.02288 monthly OR 1.3119 annual rate. THUS GSM is growing at a 31.1% annual rate. However, They are shipping the same old GSM due to GPRS not working well and WCDMA not working at all. Europe is saturated and Asia is comparing GSM to the miraculous new CDMA phone equipment coming out of Korea so Asia may well be deteriorating too. GSM could get some fresh subscribers in the US from ole AT&T, Cingular and Voice Stream, but this too will be tough sleading if Sprint kicks off vivid color multimedia phones runnibg CDMA 1XRTT and Verivon gets off the ground. CONCLUSION is that CDMA is growing at 40 to 45% annually with a rapid accelleration comming in 2002 whereas GSM is growing at 31% annually with a likely decelerating growth rate in 2002. Also, we know from Engineer that the conversinn from CDMA 1X RTT to CDMA 1X EV DO is a relatively easy one. Thus, all these 1X networks will be in a position to quickly convert to the 1X EV DO system. This is the 2.4 MBps system that SCARES THE SHIT OUT OF THE GSM GROUP because they have absolutely nothing comparable!! And they won't have for years!! If this is true, you may ask why QCOM got clobbered with NOK's drop today. The answer is simply that he stock market is not perfect. When the paddy wagon comes, it takes the good girls along with the bad. Thus, smart people have a buying opportunity and dumb people sell their stock and run. Thus when QCOM has its earnings conference call at 5:30 PM eastern on Thursday, 1/24/2002 they should have sone nice things to say. Then on Tuesday, 1/29 when QCOM presents at the Banc of America Technology Conference, they should have some more nice things to say. Also, those good things probably are largely independant of what happened with Cricket, Sprint, Verizon and other US CDMA operators in December.