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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (59188)	1/22/2002 11:14:15 PM
From: advocatedevil	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

BTB, STM Cuts Capex, and more NVLS comments from Briefing.com: 6:04PM Semi Equip Book/Bill : The North American semi equipment book/bill ratio rose to 0.78 in December from 0.73 in Nov; that's a bit better than the 0.75 consensus. Perhaps the best news is that the ratio rose this time due to an increase in bookings to $652.4 mln from $609.3 mln, rather than a decline in billings. SEMI, the organization that collects the data, noted the assembly and test markets as the best performers. 6:02PM STMicroelectronics (STM) 29.52 -1.19: Company reports Q4 earnings of $0.05 per share, in line with the consensus estimate; reports Q4 revenues of $1.45 bln versus the consensus estimate of $1.41 bln; for FY02 company trims capex spending to $1.2 bln from $1.7 bln in FY01. 5:20PM Novellus (NVLS) 36.23 -1.61: -- Update -- During Q&A, company clarified its earlier statement (see 17:04 InPlay). Management said it disclosed the reversal of the accrual at the mid-qtr call. However, whether it was fully accounted for in analyst estimates remains uncertain because it was a sell side analyst who asked the question initially and there was enough confusion for a follow-up question on the topic from another analyst. Probably a few analysts did not include it. Bottom line, probably a non-issue as stock is not reacting. 5:04PM Novellus (NVLS) 36.23 -1.61: -- Update -- Some more color on Q4 EPS. As we reported earlier, the company reported $0.12, a penny better than expected. However, during Q&A, company said that Q4 was helped by a reduction in management bonuses. In other words, the expense accrual charged in Q2 and Q3 was reversed in Q4 giving NVLS a bump on the EPS line. Without this bump, the quarter would have been about break-even, which is around $0.11 shy of consensus. In fairness, it's not clear whether the analysts had already worked this event into their estimates, but it is something to consider. AdvocateDevil

To: Paul V. who wrote (59188)	1/23/2002 1:17:15 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Paul, thank you for the bp! I'm particularly interested in bpoils =54 [meaning 54% of oil service stocks still have a PnF BUY signal]. On the two oil service threads I follow, consensus is to buy very soon. Some astute investors/traders are beginning to nibble, as they think OSX won't drop much more. Much like semi equips a year ago, when I thought the bottom was 3 months away. :) I'm more patient now and wait longer to buy - but am often still too early. PS: I wouldn't put much stock in DW's warning >DW suggest not to buy any stock in a sector above the 50%<. Some sectors seldom if ever go down as far as 30%. Others may go to the teens in one downturn, but remain above 30% in another. The oil service sector has most stocks oversold by other TA measures, if not by PnF bp. Gottfried