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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Freep who wrote (24103)	1/23/2002 6:23:33 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Freep, it is difficult to get from Mish a rational explanation for his exclamations, he was ascertaining that MU will go to $5, without explaining why MU should go to 50% of book value just before MU can assure itself the commanding lead in its own market place, and just as DRAM prices started to move back up. I don't know where he get these "sure things pronouncements", certainly not from listening to the market which right now says that KLAC is worth about $50 or about five times book value. Zeev

To: The Freep who wrote (24103)	1/23/2002 7:21:32 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

Nearly every company up and down the line is cutting Capex. MOT INTC telecom companies, yet all these companies like KLAC AMAT NVLS etc as well as analyts keep saying the bottom is in when it clearly is not in. No, I do not know what % any of these companies is to INTC, but when there seems to be across the board cutbacks in CAPEX then there is no way for the outlook to be so rosy. As for KLAC knowing what its future is better than anyone else, well perhaps they do perhaps that do not. Look at how wrong Chambers and Ellison were. Look at the CEO of CIEN (forgot his name) INSISTING INSISTING INSISTING that everything was fine at CIEN, he kept this charade up for MONTHS. They were different, better products..... bla bla bla. Well either he was an idiot or a LIAR. I contend that it is either both or just the latter. They are all playing the same game. That game is to HOPE TO HELL ORDERS PICK UP. In the meantime they tell the market "the bottom is in", upticks are just around the corner, we hope for improvement in the second half. Well they have been hoping for improvent in the second half for 3 halves now. Eventually they will get it correct, but unfortuantely, stocks have priced in 240% of any possible uptick in orders. Name the business. I do not care what. Telecom, PCs, printers, autos, housing, whatever. All this crap is on its last legs. None of this stuff is growth and the telecom and PC industries at a minimum are cutting back CAPEX. Believe what you want. But 1) Proforma nonsense of beating by a penny SUCKS totally. They know the "street number". Hell I think they even leak it. Even if they do not leak it, then all they have to do is exclude some charge or charges, whatever it takes, to beat the street. They they all whoop it up, in spite of declining revenues, and lie about how rosy things are. 2) I will bet you $100 right now KLAC warns, guides down, reduces earnings estimates or something like that within a year. I said the same thing on CIEN AMCC ORCL QCOM when everyone was saying they "believe" in their CEO. I have not lost one of these bets yet. Well I believe they are all liars and if they really came out and said how bad things were then stocks would not be where they are. I am a firm believer that IBM has lied for years, and finally it might be catching up with them. IBM has played games with pension funds FOREVER. DELL made more $ selling puts on its own stock than it ever made on selling PCs. They all lie. They are probably stupid not to lie as the guy that does not lie is at a disadvantage. Thus you see, I do not believe any of these liars, thieves, or crooks and eventually the SEC will crack down on pro-forma nonsense, lies and other such nonsense. In the meantime, lies are needed to extract $ from investors to keep the insiders happy as they sell into every rally, time and time again. Ellison should be under SEC investigation IMHO, instead, the SEC picks on some 15 year old kid. UFB M