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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (137695)	1/23/2002 6:42:07 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 164684

Can you make the connection between this and tech spending? dailynews.yahoo.com

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (137695)	1/23/2002 8:28:56 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

I am surprised how ignorant you are of this (quoted from YOUR article): "reports have confused growth in carrier revenue with growth in traffic, or assumed direct relationships between the two." That is what you are doing and it is simply unfounded.

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (137695)	1/23/2002 8:41:06 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 164684

If there is an implication in this article it is this: "Yet, while spending will resume in the near future, carriers' economics unfortunately aren't going to get any better if they continue to build their networks with today's equipment". Now the trick is to figure out what this will do to the suppliers of equipment -- I think you can expect a bloodbath of oversupply of all the wrong kinds of things and a small number of high-value things in short supply. I have worked on related projects that are on the shelf because the economics of this whole area is so pathetic, so even the "new equipment" can't get off the ground right now. It could be a nightmare a few years down the road. But making money off of this sector will be like trying to cross a freeway in LA at night with a blindfold on -- chances are you will pick another ARBA.