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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (13850)	1/24/2002 11:02:45 AM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay: >>on Amazon, their profit is made up of USD 16 mm of Euro exchange gain and USD 11 mm of operating losses, based on revenue growing at 15% per annum, and so I think Amazon will still disappear, just as Enron and KMart did and is doing.<< I respect the work you have done to analyze the quality of their reported earnings. However, I also respectfully disagree with your conclusions. The point is more the earnings trend (improving) rather than one quarter's results. As to your Amazon/Enron/KMart analogy, I couldn't disagree more strongly. Enron was a criminal Ponzi scheme. Kenneth Lay WILL go to jail. KMart is a poorly-managed old economy dinosaur, done in by Wal-Mart's extraordinarily innovative use of information technology and by .....Amazon (in the sense of a metaphor for new economy internet retailing). >>I think there may be more friction-free ways to play the Euro than holding Amazon shares.<< Very cute. >>This would not be good news, but bad news, indicative of something is terribly wrong, as in unnatural.<< No, just a result of the disinflationary environment. You are again looking at nominal, rather than real, interest rates. >>I think we can safely dismiss those numbers, from the way they are made up to the manner in which they are interpreted, from 1995 onward, especially when you tally in the waste that telecosmic was, resulting in a broadband penetration far far lower than we have in Freedom Mountain Kowloon and Money Rock Hong Kong.<< You are blinded by your preconceptions. "Recently, Dale Jorgenson at Harvard University and Kevin Stiroh at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York set out to debunk the New Economy theory -- then found themselves embracing it." ncpa.org >>Does that mean you are buying these specific names?<< No I am not - remember I mentioned that the reception on my crystal ball is kind of fuzzy. In truth, the Nasdaq bust has made me a more conservative investor. I now plan only to get (more) wealthy at a risk-averse 10% to 15% per year. Regards, Mike

To: TobagoJack who wrote (13850)	1/24/2002 2:39:29 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Respond to of 74559

>><<2. No sign of inflation for the foreseeable future>> Only true on the manufacturing side, disguising the inflation on the service side. Trashing manufacturing may not be a good idea, much like the human capital experiment that Enron was.<< The increased inflationary pressure on the service side of the economy is most worrisome. So many service expenses are non-discretionary, diverting money from allocating toward "goods" which will punish manufacturing even further.