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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (9871)	1/24/2002 3:57:19 PM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

This rally has into the first full week of February (7th and 8th). I am betting these indices will lead the SPX back above the 200 day MA once and for all... this next assault. Once this materializes, we will be on our way to that coveted SPX 1,200 + close for the first time since August 7 , 2001. ... quotes from three different posts of yours ... J.T., you have certainly been correct about the rally in equities yesterday and today ... great call ... and, by the way, knowing I was short the S&P, thanks again for the heads up ... ... and maybe we will see 1200 in the relative short run (and be above the 200 DMA) ... although I think the SPX or SPH2 will break down and probably take out the September lows between now and the end of February ... ... it seems that your analysis leads you to a conclusion that the bear market and recession are both about over ... and I think that is off target ... we are seeing SOME good indications of recovery right now, but my bet is that the most we will see is some rebuilding of inventories ... profits are a long way from recovering ... my thought is that the earliest the recession might start to end is about 12 months from now ... and that we will not be able to have any real confidence that the bear market is over until July 1, 2002 at the earliest ... ... I will say it differently - we will probably see the SPX below 900 before it gets to 1400 (I'm conceding 1200 as reasonably possible) ... ... Steven Roach is one of my many sources of faith in this analysis ... he has been on target for a year ... I am not second guessing him yet ... morganstanley.com ... it will be very interesting to see what actually works out ... Ken Wilson