Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (221791)	1/24/2002 1:09:12 PM
From: Kenneth E. Phillipps	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 769670

"The fiscal nosedive has been prompted mostly by the recession, the cost of the $1.35 trillion, 10-year tax cut Bush muscled through Congress last spring, and the price tag of the war on terrorism. In the short run, the recession is the key reason for the worsening numbers, though the tax cut's costs are more dominant over the entire decade." Message 16955085

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (221791)	1/24/2002 2:50:24 PM
From: Fangorn	Respond to of 769670

Ken, Re >WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal budget surpluses will dwindle to $2.26 trillion over the next decade and annual deficits will be back for the next two years, say new congressional projections that herald a budget squeeze sure to color this fall's election for control of Congress. < This sort of makes your previous post look... well, stupid. To:Bald Eagle who wrote (221405) From: Kenneth E. Phillipps Wednesday, Jan 23, 2002 12:59 PM View Replies (4) \| Respond to of 221824 Actually, there will be no budget surplus over the next ten years. The Bush tax cuts eliminated any chance of that happening. The deficits after the next ten years will be huge.

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (221791)	1/24/2002 4:34:01 PM
From: greenspirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

NON-PARTISAN CBO CONFIRMS RECESSION AND WAR CAUSED SURPLUS DECLINE - NOT TAX RELIEF CBO confirms recession and war caused surplus decline: CBO Director Dan Crippen said "over 70% of (FY2002 surplus reduction) results from the weak economy and related technical factors" (source: CBO testimony 1/23/02). CBO said bipartisan tax relief resulted in less than 12% of the surplus decline in FY 2002. CBO Shows Strong Fiscal Position in the Baseline: Slight baseline deficits of $21B in FY 2002 and $14B in FY 2003 give way to a baseline surplus in FY 2004 of $54B. CBO projects a $1.6T surplus between 2002-2011. OMB & CBO Budget Outlooks Are Quite Similar: CBO shows historically small deficits, especially given the simultaneous effects of war, recession, and emergency. However, some differences explain the small variance in surplus projections: . OMB assumes an economic stimulus plan and other policies will be enacted. . CBO assumes the $20B emergency response fund continues indefinitely, which will certainly not be the case. This calculation reduces CBO's 5-year surplus by $100B. The Terrorist Attacks and the Weak Economy Reduced CBO's 10-year Surplus by almost $2T Since CBO's August Update: Since the August CBO update, the 2002-2011 surplus projection fell from $3.4T to $1.6T. The Economy Took a Severe Downturn After September 11th: 943,000 jobs were lost, the stock market dropped, and consumer confidence plummeted. . 943,000 jobs were lost in the last quarter of 2001. . Unemployment rose by close to 1% (0.8%) in the last three months of 2001. . Stock market dropped by 12% by September 21st. . Consumer confidence plummeted 26% by October. . The airport and airline industry was entirely shut down. Recession, War & Homeland Security Spending Were Responsible for over 85% of the Surplus Decline: CBO's projections confirm that tax relief played a minor role in the surplus decline in the next few years - accounting for less than 12% of the decline in 2002 and less than 28% in 2003 (calculations made by OMB based on CBO projections). CBO Already Calculated Effects of Tax Relief in the August Update: The bipartisan tax relief package was already assumed in CBO's August projections.