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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10086)	1/24/2002 9:40:47 PM
From: mopgcw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

>>I am saying that a subcontractor with 3 customers, >>competitors, and only moderate barriers to entry should >>not be on a list with AMAT, ASML, KLAC, and NVLS, the >>best of the semi-equips I beg to differ. true, a small client base and niche product, that lacks the diversity leverage of an AMAT. on the other hand Cymer has eaten the competitions lunch -- much more so than AMAT, who remaining has a truly marketable, production quality product? Cymer dominates the niche for a reason. further i am not sure sure there are only moderate barriers to entry -- especially as cymer keeps bringing on the next gen. consequently, given their dominant market position in an admittedly niche market, i would argue they are one of the surest movers as well at this time. will they always be compared to AMAT etc -- given the niche market exposure? probably not. thus more long-term risk than AMAT. something to chew on. george

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10086)	1/26/2002 12:36:03 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

I am saying that a subcontractor with 3 customers, competitors, and only moderate barriers to entry should not be on a list with AMAT, ASML, KLAC, and NVLS, the best of the semi-equips. good list but your anti LRCX bias is still showing. I believe you even admitted they were as good or better than AMAT in the important etch area and they could do well in CMP, another large market. I'd add LRCX to the list as I think they are equal to NVLS in quality. :) but then again, it is better more think like you as it gives me wider swings to buy and sell a fraction of my shares. :) Kirk

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10086)	1/27/2002 1:54:04 PM
From: ScotMcI	Respond to of 10921

Cymer may seemingly have 3 customers, but in reality virtually every semiconductor manufacturer is one as well. Cymer has established facilities in every region where semiconductors are made in order to support them with spare parts and service, in many cases directly and not through the equipment makers. Cymer had 1633 lasers installed as of Q3 last year, and each of these installations should be regarded as a customer who'll be purchasing replacement parts, service, and upgrades. As for competition, Cymer noted in the Jan 9 Needham conference that they are gainng market share against Ushio, because Ushio has had problems mass-producing their product, and that they have more DUV installations than their two largest competitors combined. They also pointed out that Cymer is the only company with a full family of lasers at all 4 wavelengths involved in semiconductor manufacturing, whereas the competition has 'a product,' to use Robert Akins' words. Regarding barriers to entry, the aforementioned 4-wavelength family represents a big obstacle. So does the fact that Cymer invests heavily in R&D and has obsoleted their own products 4 or 5 times now, and plan to continue to do so. That R&D has also attained them many patents, which are barriers in and of themselves. Cymer has also been making large investments in internal process improvements for years, and it shows in their product quality. Anyone wanting to get in on the game has a heavy capital investment ahead of them if they want to go head to head with Cymer's products. There's also the not-insignificant matter of Cymer having hired many of the top people in the field, and a competitor would either have to lure them away or be faced with trying to find other folks in this rather esoteric speciality. In summary, I think Cymer is well positioned and worthy of inclusion on a list of 'best-of' semi equipment companies.