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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (10090)	1/25/2002 3:29:03 PM
From: Pink Minion	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

But demand doesn't stay constant. Lower cost/function encourages new applications and increases the sales of existing applications. If that business model collapses, then everyone's in trouble, but that's not the argument Covello is making. Not only do you need to have demand growth, but you need hypergrowth because of the ASP decline. Doesn't 65 percent of all chips still go into PC's? This industry for the last 25 years has rode off the hypergrowth of PC's. PC sales declined last year. Cycle over. And when the consumer figures out that their 4Gig machine isn't any faster than their old 2Gig machine at running Microsoft bloatware, things will be different. The Internet was the last killer app for PC and I haven't seen anything close to being invented. You couldn't guesstamate the percentage of leading edge chips (.18 - .13) that go into PC's? I bet alot.

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (10090)	1/26/2002 12:43:26 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Usually, claims that the semiconductor equipment industry is dead make a pretty good buy signal. no kidding! :) Also, I remember buying INTEL and MSFT in 1993 after the same claim was made about PCs and all people needed was Windows 3.1 :) Also, I believe these capital budget numbers include the cost for new buildings. I believe many 200mm fabs will never be put back into production in the recovery so they will be converted to 300mm and/or smaller line widths. This saves the expense of a new building. I believe Intel's cut in capital expense reflects this. I had estimates for Intel's 2002 Cap budget running between $4.5B and $6.0B. People seem to get all upset that they said they'd spend $5.5B... and yet if I read their release, memory seems to tell me they were cutting $1B in new building cost. Kirk