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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pink Minion who wrote (10094)	1/25/2002 8:48:01 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

And when the consumer figures out that their 4Gig machine isn't any faster than their old 2Gig machine at running Microsoft bloatware, things will be different. The Internet was the last killer app for PC and I haven't seen anything close to being invented. This consumer-doesn't-have-a-clue "logic", for lack of a better word, is utter nonsense. These same claims you make here were made when the x386 was on the market. Guess what? Increase the performance of the machine and applications will come along to take advantage of them. Speaking of killer apps, they usually come out of the blue and as such are by nature unpredictable. But you don't think that everyone and their cousin will want to burn their own DVD's once the price comes down a bit more? Look at the sales of CD-RW's over the past several years(and the chips associated with them). Expect a repeat performance from DVD-writers. Brian

To: Pink Minion who wrote (10094)	2/6/2002 3:04:10 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

>>Not only do you need to have demand growth, but you need hypergrowth because of the ASP decline. << ASPs typically go up, actually. Though the cost/function goes down, the price per chip goes up. A P4 costs more than a P3, a 256 MB DRAM costs more than a 128 MB DRAM. (I've posted the statistics on this at least twice in the past. Did someone perhaps save them so I don't have to dig them out again?) The share of chips in PCs has been declining for several years, particularly due to telecommunications growth and partly due to handheld devices, automotive systems, etc. That trend is likely to continue. Moreover, one down year in PC sales hardly indicates the permanent death of the PC market. IMO, it mostly indicates a major recession, combined with a flood of almost-new surplus PCs from dot.bombs, combined with fairly recent upgrades due to Y2K. Katherine