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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (10095)	1/26/2002 2:08:12 AM
From: Pink Minion	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Increase the performance of the machine and applications will come along to take advantage of them. I agree but I haven't seen anything in 5 years. When I see it, I'll change my mind. Speaking of killer apps, they usually come out of the blue and as such are by nature unpredictable. But you don't think that everyone and their cousin will want to burn their own DVD's once the price comes down a bit more? Yes, I see the VCR being replaced. No, I don't see everyone upgrading their PC so they can burn DVD's. But will that market make up more than 20% of the industry semiconductor content? Will it have hypergrowth? The industry is still tied very much to PC's and its historic growth rate.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (10095)	1/26/2002 12:56:57 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

EXCELLENT point Brian! This consumer-doesn't-have-a-clue "logic", for lack of a better word, is utter nonsense. These same claims you make here were made when the x386 was on the market. Guess what? Increase the performance of the machine and applications will come along to take advantage of them. Lets say cell phone airtime on a cost per bit falls at the same rate as we saw memory prices fall between 1982 and 2002. I remember having to wait a few months for an HP 10 Meg Hard Disk to be released so my boss would buy me an HP150 PC (yea, a joke) that I could take home to use as a reward of sorts... I think it was about half the cost of the PC. Today, nearly 20 years later, I can buy 100Gig for $179 at Frys. factor of 10,000 in performance for more more than a factor of 10 less.. .so lets say it is 100,000 cost performance ratio. Now apply that cost to Cell Phone bits per minute. My guess is a 100,000 factor in price/performance will give you streaming video for under $100 a month. If anyone doesn't think there will be a TON made selling and fabing chips for this, then they are nuts. So, my prediction is we had the cost/performance of memory drop by a factor of 100,000 in the last 20 years and now the improvement will be in cost/per bit delivery via wireless (we might get fiber to the home, but nobody wants to be tied down... the "last few feet" will probably be wireless and I suspect "the last mile" might eventually be won in the wireless market as the cost of laying cable is very high... so cable will connect the local towers in neighborhoods... but wireless will connect the neighborhoods. Just my thinking... :) Kirk out