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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (24726)	1/25/2002 4:43:02 PM
From: 4rthofjuly007	Respond to of 99280

I think that we will go sideways next week and drop after the fed meeting to 1750-1800 on the compx. The quality of this bounce so far is quite poor imo. I think that alot of longs bought at or close to these levels and they are not sure what to do. In other words, I do not think that stocks are in strong hands as there was no real retest of the lows.

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (24726)	1/25/2002 4:48:06 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 99280

I can only refer you to my comments on Hays analysis in the June/August period, he had exactly the same pattern, and at the time I was talking about a retest of 1600 in August (later replaced with the coalescence model and a low on Sept 16). I think that in terms of equivalence, we are now close to a week or two after the May 22nd high of that period last year. Hays completely disregards the string of 7 out of 8 days we had a Tick of more than 1000 on the NYSE, a sign of excessive optimism, disregards the sentiments indicators that are excessively in bull camps (thus bearish), and disregards the fact that in the last few days we had excessive "Mosis buying" of calls, the equity P/C ratio hit .38 yesterday, and bounced to only .6 today, despite a negative market most of the day. The most I see is a mild run to 2011/40 followed by a miserable February. I am almost ready to shout like last year, "be out no later than 2:30 PM on January 31st". Zeev

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (24726)	1/25/2002 5:17:53 PM
From: Joe Smith	Respond to of 99280

Did it seem like extreme panic selling to you????

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (24726)	1/25/2002 5:43:36 PM
From: paul_philp	Respond to of 99280

Panic selling. Yes indeed that is what is troubling this market. Panic selling. Sounds like a one trick pony with not a smidge of common sense. Paul

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (24726)	1/25/2002 6:36:26 PM
From: The Freep	Respond to of 99280

Yo, Oracl (I've always wanted to say "yo" to an Oracle). . . Carl Swenlin at DecisionPoint.com had an article right after the Arms reading spiked up again. His take was that that reading implied that the Dow would bottom within a certain period (I want to say 4 weeks, but I cannot be sure) after that reading. It did NOT imply that we would immediately rally on that reading, so his take is a slightly different version of Don Hays' take. (Obviously, after a "bottom" of any sort, the market will likely rally. I just mean that the effect of that ARMS reading might be delayed.) All FWIW, and I'm sure you can find the article somewhere on decisionpoint. the freep

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (24726)	1/25/2002 6:55:21 PM
From: t4texas	Respond to of 99280

don hays has changed his tune yes, hays has been very bullish and says he is still very bullish, but he appears to have moved his time table out a long way. now he thinks we are soon going to zoom through the 200 day moving averages then come to a sudden halt and wallow in a range for about eight months. he is really hot on mid cap stocks. he thinks that is where the action will be during the eight month rip van winkle period. so hays has been hard to understand lately. he is bullish, but i would say selectively bullish, i.e., be a good stock picker to make good gains, because there won't be a general rising tide market that makes every bull feel good.