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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: High-Tech East who wrote (9889)	1/26/2002 10:18:38 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

You are not wrong. Pro-forma earnings are market bubble earnings. I believe MSFT this past reporting period made the transition to the more conservative GAAP earnings and you will see this gradual transition moving into 2003 as earnings improve. Most will dare not do it yet in the next quarter maybe two until earnings and earnings visiblity improve drastically. First Call says markets move higher when earnings are growing flat with expectations of improving over the next 12 - 18 months out. As the earnings grow by 20% + as they did in April 2000 reporting period... it is as if you have climbed the top of the mouintain and you have nowhere to go back down. Even McMillan is looking for a lower low (SPX 900 area)in the market vs. September 21. He thinks he is in the minority view but many Bears on SI and CB eschew that view. I think rydex sentiment says we have a snowballs chance in hell of SPX 900 right now with current TA levels. I believe higher lows SPX 1,060 -1,080 area as mentioned in previous post that we will hit in March and potentially April. But only after we cross SPX 1,200 level first. Best Regards, J.T.

To: High-Tech East who wrote (9889)	1/26/2002 3:11:21 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

One of the things I need to continue learn from myself is patience when rydex position trading. Notice this post from December 26th before I abandoned my Bearish stance too early in January: ************** To:High-Tech East who wrote (9666) From: J.T. Wednesday, Dec 26, 2001 11:49 PM Respond to 9673 of 9897 I heard the same message reading between the lines from Paine Webber's Art Cashun down at the floor reporting to CNBC in today's last hour of trading.... Unless, we get news of bin ladens death or capture in the next 48 hours, the larceny boyz are setting up for a rug job on da bullz. Major asphalt grind, imho in one or possibly both of the next two trading days... NDX 1,528 intraday test from November 12th is on deck... NDX closed at NDX 1,590.84 up 13 today... This correlates to SPX 1,118 test... Today's close SPX 1,149.37... But a more realistic target here is SPX 1,128 on this pullback. Best Regards, J.T. ******************* Both intraday low tests prognosticated on Dec 26 (NDX 1,528, SPX 1,118)got hit earlier this past week as the NDX intraday low hit 1,500 and 1,501 on Jan 22 and 23 and the SPX hit 1,117 and change twice on Jan 22 and 23. I think we have put in good bottoms on the 22nd and 23rd and we scream higher next week. What is the update on your SPH short position via the 18 Bar set-up? Best Regards, J.T.