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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Trader who wrote (59454)1/26/2002 12:38:23 PM
From: Gottfried  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 70976
 
John, as you know AD shorts AMAT daily for small % gains. That's one way to short. Another would be to short here and cover at 25 [I've seen that recommendation somewhere]. That implies strong confidence in the downside. Is Barron's giving a target? In any case, this very thread contains a much better understanding of the industry than Barron's has and I would ignore them, whether they're bullish or bearish. If SEMI orders go up from here and historic precedent is repeated, there is little downside.

Gottfried



To: John Trader who wrote (59454)1/26/2002 2:28:18 PM
From: Math Junkie  Respond to of 70976
 
No one else has the resources to do what Intel does. In past downturns, their capital spending has always held up MUCH better than anyone else's, and this downturn has been no exception, so far.

There is a long time lag between ordering equipment and getting it in production. (Six months? Two years?) That means that if they could afford it, semi companies would be spending on fab equipment according to what they think demand will be one to two years from now. My guess is that the real time connection between semiconductor sales and capex is that semi companies will increase capex when they think they can do so without going broke.

Extrapolation from previous declines is very iffy. All you have to do is look at Gottfried's charts to see how different this cycle is from previous ones.

suite101.com



To: John Trader who wrote (59454)1/26/2002 2:37:13 PM
From: Jacob Snyder  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
John,

Intel is such a big company, that other semis may follow their lead, as far as moving to 300mm and die shrinks. Capex budgets are not set in stone. They are targets, and companies change them, if they see changed conditions. The pattern is, that semi-equip stocks closely follow changes in semi-equip bookings. In turn, bookings follow fundamentals of the semi industry. So, when semis start to see pricing power return, increased capacity utilization, margins stabilizing, sales coming back, then it is a very good bet that they will be increasing capex budgets soon (months, not years). And I am seeing those signs, now.

The other thing to consider is that the simple passage of time fixes problems in this industry. Bookings cannot stay at the 600-700M level for years. There has to be a rebound in bookings (probably in 2002, in early 2003 at the latest, IMO). This is because semi-equipment goes obsolete quickly.

I read analysts and the business press for the facts they contain. Their interpretations and forecasts are useless.



To: John Trader who wrote (59454)1/26/2002 3:33:13 PM
From: Sam Citron  Respond to of 70976
 
One of the things that caught my eye, John, is that this short call on AMAT is not just by some young hedge fund manager, but by one of the esteemed deans of value investing, John Neff, who used to run Vanguard's Windsor Fund, and who is one of the best stock pickers on the planet. The really unusual thing is that Neff almost never picks shorts. So let's take a look at what he actually told Barrons:

Neff: I've got one short, Applied Materials. Like a lot of people around this table, I too think technology stocks have come back too far and too fast, particularly those areas that are capital-expenditure dependent. Applied Materials is one of the biggest semi equipment suppliers, and I think this company will earn nothing this year, as it has for the past couple of quarters. It is nicely financed, and has a very good balance sheet. But there are a lot of other tech companies in their customer base that need to get cash positive, which might happen by midyear. This company is capitalized at about $37 billion. Book value is around $9, and the stock is selling for $45.22, well down from its high of a little more than $100. But it's well up from its recent lows in the high $20s.

Q: If you're right, those people who have been buying the stock, expecting a big improvement in the semiconductor business, could face considerable disappointment.

Neff: The company will about break even for the next six, seven quarters. On the other hand, it's got a great balance sheet, with hardly any debt and cash of $4.7 billion. So it's not going out of business.
[emphasis mine]

The statement in bold seems to suggest that orders might be slow for a couple more quarters (no surprise).

It sounds like it just doesn't get through his buy screen at present valuation. I must say that I agree. OTOH, I think it would be attractive at 32.

Sam