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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (59455)	1/26/2002 3:44:32 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

this very thread contains a much better understanding of the industry than Barron's has and I would ignore them Gottfried, That sounds a bit arrogant. Barrons is one of the best financial publications around. You may disagree with what they say, but ignore them at your peril. John Neff has compiled an outstanding record. You might have a look at how well his picks have done. It is true that collectively we may know quite a lot about AMAT, but remember that Neff is a guy who ran one of the biggest and most successful mutual funds in the world. You can't put this type of opinion on ignore. Sam

To: Gottfried who wrote (59455)	1/26/2002 6:21:16 PM
From: John Trader	Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, Richard, Jacob, and Sam, thanks very much for your inputs. We will have to remember to check on Mr. Neff's short idea a year from now to see how that turned out. I think I will program that in my Palm Pilot. I think shorting AMAT is all in the timing. Really long term it would be crazy to short this stock - that would be almost like betting on civilization itself going down. A year seems rather long to me, given the length of this decline already, but I have no argument that he has a great record. I recall when I first bought AMAT near the bottom in 96, I heard an analyst argue it was "dead money" for a year. From then to the peak in 2000 it went up about 15 times, that would have really hurt if you were short. I am not expecting a repeat of that of course, but I think/hope the stock will make a new high within 2 or 3 years. John