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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (10107)	1/26/2002 1:59:21 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

RE: "...Cymer is entering it's glory days and that its earnings will explode during the coming cycle." Correct my impressions, please! CYMI sells a $400k laser to 3 customers who place it in a $6-11M lithography tool. There are reasonably accurate estimates of the number of lithography tools to be marketed over the next few years and only one of the three customers has had an aggressive growth program in place over the last decade. Even if CYMI doesn't lose some market share to competitors, how does a company "explode" when its customers volumes will not.

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (10107)	1/26/2002 3:47:28 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Robert, Re:So what you say is true, but the same argument can be used against investment in almost every tech company that I can think of. Whatever form IC's take after silicon, I think it is safe to say a company like AMAT stands a high chance to be the leader there also. They have the expertise in physics and engineering to allow them to be malleable, so to speak, to make such a transition. In addition, any company which spends $10B or so on a fab will want a company who has a track record to show, and AMAT has this. CYMI's expertise is lasers, that is it, and as such, I would give it a low probability that they will be a leader in the sector in whatever form IC's take in the post-silicon era. And if there is any chance of my being correct, I do not believe WS will afford the company generous multiples for these very reasons since future revenue streams is all that matters here. Regards, Brian