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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (59462)	1/26/2002 4:43:59 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Threaders, Compare price monthly swings with next post of BTB. Then, compare the swing in the prices. I agree with Jacob, and Tito that that if Orders continue to move up AMAt will move up quickly. Paul MONTH Price Rng JAN'96 30-41.375 FEB'96 35.5-44.75 MAR'96 30.625-38.25 APR '96 33.9375-42.5 MAY'96 34.625-41.375 JU'96 28.875-37.25 JLY'96 21.75-32.25 AUG'96 23.125-27.50 SEPT'96 22.75-29.375 OCT'96 25.625-30.50 NOV'96 25.875-39.75 DEC'96 33.875-40.50 JAN'97 34.6875-49.625 FEB'97 40.875-55.125 MARCH'97 43.25-54.125 APR'97 44.875-55 MAY'97 53.50-72 JU'97 57.5625-74.625 JLY'97 70.625-93.25 AUG'97 88.25-108.375 SEP'97 90.875-102.50 OCT'97 split 105.9375-58.5(split) NOV'97 28.75-40.125 DEC'97 25.50-35.9375 JAN'98 26.4375-33.25 FEB'98 33.25-38.125 MAR'98 31.8125-36.75 APR'98 33.875-39.50 MAY'98 31.625-39.6094 JU'98 26-32.50 Jly'98 27.50-34.50 AUG'98 24.50-37.375 SEP'98 22.4375-27.75 OCT'98 21.5625-36.625 NOV'98 32.1875-43 DEC'98 37.3125-47 JAN'99 42.875-64.0625 FEB'99 55.3125-71.625 MAR'99 54.50-67.0625 APR'99 48.4375-68.875 MAY'99 50.75-67.25 JUNE'99 53.50-75 JLY'99 68.0625-79.9375 AUG'99 62.25-79.25 SEP'99 71.25-84.9375 OCT'99 73.5625-90.1875 NOV'99 87.50-113.25 DEC'99 98.125-129 JAN'00 111-146.625 FEB'00 133.25-189.75 MAR'00 196.9375-163 Presplit today APR.'00 156-230/PRS (115-78/PS) MAY'00 68.8125-104.75 JUNE'00 85.50-98.50 JULY'00 72-94.50 AUG'00 64.75-87.625 SEP'00 58.2344-88.875 OCT. 00 40.50-60.9375 NOV. 00 38.50-52.75 Dec. 00 34.125-51.25 JAN.01. 01 38-53.9375 FEB'01 41-51.625 MAR'01 39.0625-52.4062 APR.'01 36.5625-59.10 MAY'01 48.35-58.49 JUNE'01 45.80-56.48 Jly'01 39.87-50.45 AUG'01 41.80-50.25 SEP'01 27.05-44.45 OCT. 01 26.59-38 NOV. 01 33.72-43.10 Dec. 01 38.82-46.58 Jan 02 39-48

To: Paul V. who wrote (59462)	1/26/2002 4:44:37 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Threaders, Compare price monthly swings with next post of BTB. Then, compare the swing in the prices. I agree with Jacob, and Tito that that if Orders continue to move up AMAt will move up quickly. Paul MONTH Price Rng JAN'96 30-41.375 FEB'96 35.5-44.75 MAR'96 30.625-38.25 APR '96 33.9375-42.5 MAY'96 34.625-41.375 JU'96 28.875-37.25 JLY'96 21.75-32.25 AUG'96 23.125-27.50 SEPT'96 22.75-29.375 OCT'96 25.625-30.50 NOV'96 25.875-39.75 DEC'96 33.875-40.50 JAN'97 34.6875-49.625 FEB'97 40.875-55.125 MARCH'97 43.25-54.125 APR'97 44.875-55 MAY'97 53.50-72 JU'97 57.5625-74.625 JLY'97 70.625-93.25 AUG'97 88.25-108.375 SEP'97 90.875-102.50 OCT'97 split 105.9375-58.5(split) NOV'97 28.75-40.125 DEC'97 25.50-35.9375 JAN'98 26.4375-33.25 FEB'98 33.25-38.125 MAR'98 31.8125-36.75 APR'98 33.875-39.50 MAY'98 31.625-39.6094 JU'98 26-32.50 Jly'98 27.50-34.50 AUG'98 24.50-37.375 SEP'98 22.4375-27.75 OCT'98 21.5625-36.625 NOV'98 32.1875-43 DEC'98 37.3125-47 JAN'99 42.875-64.0625 FEB'99 55.3125-71.625 MAR'99 54.50-67.0625 APR'99 48.4375-68.875 MAY'99 50.75-67.25 JUNE'99 53.50-75 JLY'99 68.0625-79.9375 AUG'99 62.25-79.25 SEP'99 71.25-84.9375 OCT'99 73.5625-90.1875 NOV'99 87.50-113.25 DEC'99 98.125-129 JAN'00 111-146.625 FEB'00 133.25-189.75 MAR'00 196.9375-163 Presplit today APR.'00 156-230/PRS (115-78/PS) MAY'00 68.8125-104.75 JUNE'00 85.50-98.50 JULY'00 72-94.50 AUG'00 64.75-87.625 SEP'00 58.2344-88.875 OCT. 00 40.50-60.9375 NOV. 00 38.50-52.75 Dec. 00 34.125-51.25 JAN.01. 01 38-53.9375 FEB'01 41-51.625 MAR'01 39.0625-52.4062 APR.'01 36.5625-59.10 MAY'01 48.35-58.49 JUNE'01 45.80-56.48 Jly'01 39.87-50.45 AUG'01 41.80-50.25 SEP'01 27.05-44.45 OCT. 01 26.59-38 NOV. 01 33.72-43.10 Dec. 01 38.82-46.58 Jan 02 39-48

To: Paul V. who wrote (59462)	1/26/2002 7:02:17 PM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Slightly off Topic - Demand for Semi's: Thread members, let me know if you have any comment on the following logic: I think everybody agrees that Netscape Navigator was a "killer application". I think the big deal was not just the ease of use - the hyperlinks and all that, but also the graphics and color. I recall back when I bought my first color monitor back in 1990. The monitor was compatible with the old "CGM" graphics standard. I rationalized the purchase on the basis of making use of some PC-based engineering analysis software that became available then. At the time I had a PC with an Intel 80286 chip in it. A surprising result of that purchase was that I found myself using my PC a great deal more. I think what happened is that I found it to be a more enjoyable experience due to the presence of color. I think things are more enjoyable when we also utilize the right half of our brains, which processes graphics, color, music, etc. I think this same fact is what helped out USA-Today in its early days. I think that was the first major newspaper in color. The web now has plenty of graphics and color, but it has been very slow going with video in recent years due to the "last mile" bottleneck. I think phone and cable companies are holding up the wheels of progress and also that government should step in and help clear this logjam (I won't hold my breath waiting for that of course). In my opinion, these phone and cable companies have a monopoly mindset, and are hurting not just the tech industry, but the whole economy. I think this breakdown in bandwidth growth is hurting many semiconductor companies, and also semi equip's such as AMAT, for if bandwidth opens up, we will need much faster chips for PC's, and also for all sorts of devices. I don't remember exactly when the 56K modem became available, but I am thinking it was about 4 years ago. I think it is crazy to have this speed limit in effect for so long. I realize there is DSL and cable modem service for many folks, but not nearly enough. Also, my cable modem service is not that fast, it seems to be only about 3 times as fast as a good 56K connection. A cable guy recently told me in fact that they recently slowed down the system for everyone, apparently to cut costs. A related problem I think is that it is hard to measure the bandwidth you receive, and also hard to know where it is being slowed down, whether it is local, or out at the destination web site. I think we need some kind of measurement standard, which would then help provide an incentive to the phone and cable companies to get going on the necessary upgrades to their equipment. I am thinking that when this logjam eventually breaks, it will create a lot of demand for fast chips, which will in turn drive up semiconductor and semi-equipment stocks such as AMAT. So, according to my logic, video will be a bigger deal than we think, and will create a new enthusiasm for the internet and technology, because it is human to want to use that right half of our brain. Perhaps it will be something like Netscape-Navigator - the Sequel. As to when this will all happen, well I think that is the really hard question. John