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Pastimes : Predictions - Does Anybody Get It Right? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Taut Knot who wrote (38)	1/27/2002 10:47:39 AM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 117

Single stock predictions stand a much better chance of working, especially if it's a stock you follow daily and know well, and your prediction is very short-term. Most threads that make many trades - like Thomas Carr's Befriend the Trend thread, which I recommend - will document positive results in 60-70% of trades. I checked my own results since 9/11 (when Thomas started keeping track) and found a consistent record in the low 60's. That's all you need to produce good returns if you cut your losses regularly. I am much more suspicious of posters who sound like they never lose. There is a word for them. Liars. We learn more from trades that went wrong than trades that go right. Anyone with half a brain who works hard can pick more winners than losers over time. Limiting losses seems to be the key to making serious bucks over time.