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Pastimes : Predictions - Does Anybody Get It Right? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (58)	1/27/2002 7:00:54 PM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 117

I came to realize that for intermediate and longer-term trend turns close is more than good enough! I agree with you, LG. Another thought crossed my mind as I was whipping up some dinner salad - instead of trying to time when to go to a higher cash level, a disciplined system of trailing stop loss orders does the trick just as well. You may lose a bit from the highs, but I suspect that human error caused by guessing - oops, I should say "predicting" - the tops is the same in net terms. If the markets do plunge either in February or in April-May, I won't get caught too long like I did last year. My stops should adjust my cash level without my confusion getting in the way. Generating long profits even in the market plunge from March 2000 to September 2001 wasn't impossible; my Achilles heel was not controlling losses enough to benefit much at the end of the day (or the end of the 18 months in this case).