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Pastimes : Predictions - Does Anybody Get It Right? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (79)	1/28/2002 6:04:22 PM
From: Sam Raven	Respond to of 117

Some almost random thoughts on this subject: I've never felt that anyone could predict the market with much accuracy, but then I don't think it is important as long as you follow the trend. Our indictor has been pretty good at putting us in during the largest parts of the market gains and out during the downturns. You can read our record at our site, or here on SI. For example our indicators turned negative on Aug. 29. and remained that way until October. (We have had one negative day since, I think Wednesday last week) Message 16272944 In January 1999 we made two sectors calls, Biotechs and Energy, both did very well that year. In 2000 we were bearish and didn't make any sector predictions. We have for this year, (I almost hate to admit <g>). We don't make stock predictions exactly either, generally we buy on short term weakness, stocks that are in intermediate uptrends to sell near their high. I guess since we do have sell targets near the local high, maybe we are making a prediction there...we also recommend stops. I think you can make money without making a bet on a prediction one way or another. Unless following the trend is a prediction? If you could count on predictions failing at over 50% you could make money doing the opposite? But in the real world you couldn't count on that either. As far as the pick how the market does from day to day I'd expect we have a pretty good average using the daily Screened Stock Ratio, until recently I posted that on our thread, however, since we for the most part dropped all our day trade picks I've just been posting the average....which still has a good record on the day too. In sum, don't make bets on anyone's "prediction", it is not even worth looking for. It is too easy to be misled by anyone who might make one good coin flip. My thoughts anyway, Sam