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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (69476)	1/30/2002 9:58:37 AM
From: Harvey Allen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Joe- re:Check out P3 1.4 GHz (again with 512k L2). It slaughters Athlon 1.4 GHz, and it beats Athlon XP 1.466 GHz That would have to be with SDRAM. In the real world I think the Athlons and XP's would reverse the role with DDR. Harvey

To: Joe NYC who wrote (69476)	1/30/2002 10:52:04 AM
From: dale_laroy	Respond to of 275872

>I don't think Thoroughbred will ever catch Northwood. Northwood will gain 1 GHz in 1 year, and if Thoroughbred got only 666 MHz, we would need to see 2.3 GHz Thoroughbred. If that was achievable, 66 MHz will not be enough to match 100 MHz increase of NW. At some point, even 100 MHz of Tbred may not be enough to match 100 MHz of NW, mainly because of L2 cache advantage. SPECint really benefits from it. Check out P3 1.4 GHz (again with 512k L2). It slaughters Athlon 1.4 GHz, and it beats Athlon XP 1.466 GHz.< It is unlikely that Thoroughbred will reach 2.3 GHz. It can reach 2.3 GHz, and would be likely to reach 2.3 GHz in Q3 2003 if AMD continued to produce it. But, AMD will be switching all Athlon production to Barton by the beginning of next year, and Barton itself will probably top out at about 2.67 GHz towards the end of Q4 2003. All of this is fairly irrelevant however, because even Duron will be replaced by a variant of Hammer by the end of 2003. Either Hammer will perform as I expect, being able to reach at least a 20% higher clock rate on the same process versus Athlon, or AMD is in big trouble (relative to 2001) throughout 2003 and early 2004.