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Strategies & Market Trends : Wall Street Analysts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patsy Collins who wrote (93)	1/31/2002 3:28:22 PM
From: Wizard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 167

There is no public link. This next-gen Acrobat version has too much security to copy/paste. While Roach and Biggs talk double-dip, ISI (and now Alan Greenspan) clearly see something different. The long-term is unknown but the short term is now virtually assured to be a rather typical expansion, at least at first. Certain companies are leading this (SEBL, EMLX, BRCD, CSCO) but even most CEO's can now see that the worst is over... ISI points out that the economy bottomed in 2H of 2001 with Q3 being the real low and Q4 being weak but less weak. In Q4, real GDP ex inventories grew +1.7% but the -$121 billion in inventory liquidation depressed everything. Q4 inventory liquidation was a record -1.3% of GDP... that is a staggering % given how big our economy is... This was a tough recession but should prove shorter than others. There may be a double-dip in 2003 but 2002 is safe... Paraphrasing Alan Greenspan from January 11th: 'Cyclical ‘episodes’ are steeper but the length of the problem is reduced because companies deal with their problems up-front (as they get real-time info from their IT systems) relative to previous cycles and therefore the imbalances don’t have time to compound into long-term issues…' "The ability of the economy to bounce back from tremendous asset deflation and a major terrorist attack is truly impressive."