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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CpsOmis who wrote (12155)	1/31/2002 5:52:48 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Cosmo, Take some time, think, relax, read (may I suggest "Beyond Candlesticks" by Nison, or "Lolita" by Nabokov) and come back when you want to. You'll always have a slot at HTP. I hear you on all your issues (I think we all do). It's often hard to screen out not only noise but good information which is not right for you. We have our gunslingers (JimP comes to mind) and our deep pocket types (Kmeister) but I don't want to trade like them--I have to follow the mantra of position management (which you touched on). I know when my positions are out of whack: I go to sleep at 11:00 p.m. and wake up at 1:15 a.m. having bad dreams about individual homebuilder positions. Two days ago I made a bundle, yesterday I lost a bundle, today I made a bundle. It really is strange. Yet with the help of my friends and colleagues I'm working my way toward discovering the exact correct way for Kodiakbull to invest/trade and survive. It's not easy, but it sure is a journey of self discovery. You find out more about yourself and your greed and fear levels in one short week of out of position trading than you do in 4 years of college. In any event, stay tuned in from time to time, this board may calm down enough to go off topic in the not too distant future. Can anyone figure out why we shouldn't hold quick military tribunals and summarily execute the Al Qaeda assholes in our possession? (I bet Steeliejim has an opinion!!). Cosmo, stay well, remember that if anything I said EVER offended you, I only meant half of it. Kb

To: CpsOmis who wrote (12155)	1/31/2002 6:17:12 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 23153

Thanks for today's commentary, as well as all your past contributions, Cosmo. The market will be here when ever you choose to return. In the event you decide not to return, here's wishing you and your's all the best that life has to offer. Stay well, keep you chin up and drop us a line now and then. mh

To: CpsOmis who wrote (12155)	1/31/2002 7:20:35 PM
From: Timelord	Respond to of 23153

O/T Best of luck away from the "trading floor". I think anyone who has traded for any length of time has experienced what you describe. The numbers may vary, but the emotions do not. Cut your losses is a wonderful mantra, but the gremlins are always there with their sweet tongues, and their promises of speedy reversals and absolute bottoms. When the time comes, if it comes, I hope I have enough common sense to walk away. We'll keep a light on for you... Alex

To: CpsOmis who wrote (12155)	1/31/2002 7:29:39 PM
From: jim_p	Respond to of 23153

Cosmo, You can't take the whole year off, but between now and the end of March we'll let you take a well deserved break. Last year was a real struggle for all of us. 2002 has the makings of a very good year in the patch, and that's were we make most our money. If HC was a tech stock it would have been sold after the first advance, but we know the value of an oil stock and we're more comfortable holding it for a longer time horizon. Enjoy your rest, but we want to see you back here no later that the end of March. Thanks again for the DOW tip, it's been one of my better stocks so far this year. I hate to see you leave, but if you have to don't be a stranger during your sabbatical and come back rested. Jim

To: CpsOmis who wrote (12155)	1/31/2002 7:33:33 PM
From: Frank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Cosmo--I understand what you are saying and can relate. I feel our mutual lack of experience creates this unease. We got into this about three years ago on SD and greatly benefited from advice of Slider, John Clarke, Big Dog, Big Bull and JimL. Then, from Que007, KB,dabum,Rory,Roebear, Kerry,Doug and,of course, the great JimP. All of those guys knew more than we did--but we learned quickly --and did better than we ever imagined. Now we feel a certain lack of direction and it creates unease. Our inexperience over a cycle haunts us and our decisions.Take a break, read a book and come back. You'll be here again because you want to be. This is where the action is and, as is obvious from the emotional depth of your post, where your heart is as well-----Frank

To: CpsOmis who wrote (12155)	1/31/2002 8:19:21 PM
From: S Shaw	Respond to of 23153

Cosmo: Best wishes for your sabbatical no matter how long it lasts. If you get bored, head down Interstate 71. It's only 2 hours and change. Scott

To: CpsOmis who wrote (12155)	1/31/2002 8:20:31 PM
From: Warpfactor	Respond to of 23153

Cosmo, Come back and visit us once in awhile. And we could always use the backup ammo during the heavy Iso/SOB flareups. Hopefully one day we will have that Rig party. Your situation is somewhat opposite of mine. When I had a "small" portfolio of say $30-$50K, I would generally take from 5-7 positions. Concentrated positions. Now I've got a port in the neighborhood of $300K and I think I'm taking huge risks if I exceed $20K in any one position. I think that this is turning my port into a mutual fund and mitigating my returns. But you are correct, taking an 80% position in one stock is risky. But, there are companies out there that only let employees invest 401K funds in company stock. Warp

To: CpsOmis who wrote (12155)	1/31/2002 8:41:34 PM
From: cnyndwllr	Respond to of 23153

Cosmos; good for you! When that little hamster cage we're in starts circling really fast it's hard to get off. It looks like you just jumped off and landed on your feet. What a concept finding a less frenzied life style is to the type A personalities all of us here have. I like your idea of creating some separation and deciding where you want to go. Be careful though, the adrenalin high of trading big numbers will pull you back if you're not determined. If you've got an interest that you've been putting on the back burner, now might be a good time. If you you find you really miss the rush, maybe some kind of competitive sport? Bowling can get pretty intense. g. I'm trying to wean myself away also. I am almost fully invested but not very interested. (By the way, thank you JimP for recommending hc and stating your views so clearly.) I think I would have to lose some significant money to get mentally involved again and its a little scary to have as much as I do in the market and be so cavalier. If you have some great insights on how to stop being an investing and chat room junkie, stop by and let us know. I enjoyed your reports on the trip around the world, maybe you could call this one a journey of rebirth and post the good stuff sometimes. You're a good man Cosmo. Ed

To: CpsOmis who wrote (12155)	1/31/2002 10:29:41 PM
From: Wowzer	Respond to of 23153

Cosmo, Sorry to see you go, but I think you are making the right decision. I my opinion you were assuming too much risk, investing 80% of your port in one stock, with that size of port especially if you will need it in the future. Unless you are starting with a small port, or don't mind losing 20% to 50% or more in one day, I think it is insane to go that much in one stock. It is too easy for a stock to move against you, forcing or compelling (fear) you to sell at exactly the wrong time. You have worked too long and hard to take a chance on losing it all on a couple of bad trades. Glad to hear you quit at an all time high. But if you ever do get sucked back in keep your trades to a max of 5% with maybe a special a max of 10% for the "for sure" stocks. I have been trading full time for a little over 5 years now and I will be damned if the market is going to take it all away in one or two trades. I better have a total market meltdown if I am going to lose it all. My rule is a max of 5% in one stock with the exceptional cases of 10%, and a 20% during the day on blue chip liquid stocks with set stops in place and those trades are very rare and are closed out by the end of the day. No way in hell will I ever hold more then 10% over night on anything period. Not even if the self proclaimed trading god ISO himself recommended it...LOL As Warp says this diversification may dilute your % return, but when your portfolio increases, capital preservation becomes more important then a high return IMO. Plus as your port increase, you don't need a high percentage to make a nice income. I have a set goal and when I hit it, I am walking away from this for good, other then maybe a few small trades...ggg. Because I know I am addicted......... BTW your trip around the world sounded awesome and made me jealous as hell. Keep us posted, Rory

To: CpsOmis who wrote (12155)	2/1/2002 8:08:37 AM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 23153

Et tu Cosmo? Have been pulling back on trading and going to long term positions myself. Think you will find it is easier than you think, and you will have a lot of free time after it is done. Hopefully you won't be bored stiff! Will you send me a Pmail and let me know who you did your world trip with? I have someone to take now :) Liked your DOW pick. I independently picked it up just before the con call started and have been quite happy with the results. Should have bought more. Have been happy with TYC and HAL purchases as well. All long term holds. Got a thought to run by the thread regarding the recovery. The rocket scientists on Wall Street have been saying technology will lead the way out. It seems to me that manufacturing is actually leading the way as a result of the strong housing market. Tech doesn't appear to be doing squat recoverywise while manufacturing sector appears to be recovering quite nicely. Anyone see good deals on companies that are likely to benefit from the equipping of all the new houses? On another note, anyone see any companies likely to benefit from all of the impending military spending? Looking for longer term holds, stocks I can "ignore" for 2-3 years.

To: CpsOmis who wrote (12155)	2/1/2002 10:21:59 AM
From: JHP	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

here is some very helpful advice from a man, Mike Burke, whom many respect here on SI: Message 14449932

To: CpsOmis who wrote (12155)	2/1/2002 8:36:01 PM
From: Libbyt	Respond to of 23153

OT - Cosmo There comes a time when each of us needs to re-assess how we spend our time and efforts... It sounds like you've made a good decision, and "the right" one for you at this time. Sometimes all of us can be "side tracked" and loose site of "the big picture" and what truly is important in our lives. Thanks for sharing your "story" and hopefully many of us can learn from some of the examples you've mentioned. What a concept: diversification! LOL!...Seems like I've heard that before This quote just seems to "fit" the choice you've made.... "What lies behind us and what lies before us are small matters compared to what lies within us." (Emerson) Best of luck Cosmo from an HTP lurker!

To: CpsOmis who wrote (12155)	2/1/2002 10:02:29 PM
From: CpsOmis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

I want to thank you one and all for your many kind public and provate replies to my last post. I am very touched. I've been pleased and honored to be associated with each and every one of you. It amused me somewhat to realize, that I am now technically unemployed, and that I just fired myself! I wonder if I will show up in this weeks unemployment figures? <g> I will be stopping back in to say hi from time to time, but not for a while. Thanks again, until then...... Cosmo

To: CpsOmis who wrote (12155)	2/2/2002 1:34:45 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Respond to of 23153

Cosmo, I always thought swans were beautiful. Your song is a jeweled incandescence and remarkable self-exposition of the notion that the human is an emotional entity, bless with an intellect. As a somewhat erratic member of this tribe (hi KB!) I can draw great empathetic circles of understanding (though not predictive ability) about your ruminations and lamentations. First of all, its a good thing that you got a clue. And, here's an interesting tale for you: Round these parts, we got a little talkin' points gatherin' called the Tuesday Club. You can find us on SI, if you really are good at research. And one of the original members of the Club was a humdinger. Mark was a 747 captain, he was past his prime and he wasn't going to get to fly passengers. He was going to get to fly freight. He wasn't going to get to fly freight for FedUp or UPyourS. He was going to fly the 30 year old birds that the Brand X low bid carriers bring grapes from Chile into the U.S. markets were flying. Low maintenance. Not low miles. Mark saw risk. He decided that an anonymous death off the coast of Panama wasn't quite worth his contribution to globalization. So, he decided to work his capital. When he started his assault on the financial markets, he had about $300 K. A nice bit o' boodle in 1999. A hell of a market to play in. I was, of course, seeing beyond the dot.comedies and investing in internet infrastructure companies. Good move. Mark was daytrading AMZN. Making money. Then he got cross-pollinated with a Merrill-Lynch broker (love that irony, don't you?) who got Mark to think about Safeway calls. Golden. Some of the concepts that the M/L guy presented made money. Mark wasn't foolish enough to accept an M/L tout at face value. He decided on a DIY version using CNBC's newsfeed, a cell phone and his Charles Schwab broker to place some serious out of the money bets on Safeway calls. He placed some orders "at the market". He didn't realize he was the market. He moved the price on the calls from 7 1/2 to 11 1/2 in nanoseconds based on his action, and then the price crashed. What he thought was a $100,000 bet put his whole boodle at risk in about 15 minutes. It got exciting. He placed his bet at about 10 AM market time. By 2 PM, the stress was too much for him to take. He sold. And lost $37,500 in four hours. After he told us this story, we never saw him again. Just another hoodoo. -Ray