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Gold/Mining/Energy : CPN: Calpine Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clement who wrote (267)	2/1/2002 4:32:07 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Respond to of 555

Hi Clement, Re: Research from GS is largely done for institutional clients anyway. So to burn its institutionals goes far beyond unwise -- there are balancing measures in place. I have no doubt whatsoever that the institutions get different, and more honest, analysis than the retail public receives. Case in point: JP Morgan Chase, and Citibank through their retail outlets were recommending Enron stock to individual investors based on phony accounting, while the private placement portion of these banks was receiving more correctly stated information from Enron in order to price their positions in the off shore partnerships. Another example of a deep malaise of conflicts of interests that the retail investor must be vigilant about. I still don't think you've made your case. The conflicts of interests are too deep, systemic and corrupt for a retail investor not to rationally decide to go on strike. Wall Street has ruined itself in the past, the 1930's being prima facie evidence that the Street can be so arrogant that it destroys the market. Should we let them get away with their arrogant and corrupt practices? I don't think it is in the nation's best interests. -Ray

To: Clement who wrote (267)	2/1/2002 5:26:25 PM
From: Winkman777	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 555

Per CFSB: Liquidity recovery story. Private market value of CPN's assets ($26.85). IMHO uncertainties will keep CPN volatile and depressed for months. I own the stock and have sold a ladder of puts 7.5's to 15's. Some of the puts may need to be rolled over, but they will all expire worthless eventually. CPN will make it the rest of the way through the current liquidity concern. CPN has the potential to be a real cash generator in 2003 +. As they said in the cc, the excess cash could be used to buy back shares (unlikely IMO), pay down debt, or help finance expansion now on hold. They may get slapped by the judge in ENE bk. Jimp feels they will Message 16989993 Message 16993461 ******************************************** CFSB-STRONG BUY, TARGET $30 Rating: STRONG BUY 12-Mo. Target: $30 On January 31, Strong Buy rated Calpine reported 2001 EPS of $1.95, a 63% increase over the $1.20 reported in 2000 and in-line with our estimate. Net earnings increased 82% to $680 million and EBITDA rose 59% to $1.016 billion. Total Mwh generated by CPN during 2001 increased 91% to 43.5 million Mwh from 22.8 million Mwh in 2000. The increase reflected the addition of 13 new power plants. Our 2002 and 2003 EPS estimates remain $1.78 and $2.40. Calpine hosted a conference call to discuss 2001 earnings results and review its outlook for 2001. This was the fourth conference call Calpine has hosted since early December. However, this call was distinguished by the fact that minimal new incremental information was revealed. Rather, the call served as an opportunity for management to reiterate and clarify the details surrounding its updated capital expenditure budget and earnings forecast. We view the investment case for Calpine as a liquidity recovery story. In recent weeks Calpine has taken a number steps that verify this story remains on track. On January 16, CPN announced that it was delaying all of its advanced development projects. On January 10, CPN announced that it received commitments from 7 banks for a new $1 billion unsecured credit facility. On December 19, CPN priced $1.2 billion of convertible securities. Our 12-month target price remains $30, which reflects a 10% premium to our estimate of the private market value of CPN's assets ($26.85).