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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (112031)	2/2/2002 4:13:35 AM
From: limtex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

JW - Capitalism simply doesn't work in deflation. All the postings in the last week or so about continuing the retest of lows for the rest of the year and the latest rash of postings about the Gold price are simply manifestations of the gradual realization that has taken place since INTC earnings were announced that there is NO RECOVERY IN SIGHT. Talk of 2H recovery is beginning to remind people that that was last years story and incredibly it is being trotted out again this year. No recovery this year means a continuation of the bear market and we all now know what that is. Believe it or not they are still talking about recovery. What major company sees a recovery, INTC, MSFT? Who? Watch for the pop after for an upgrade and then sell like hell. Best, L

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (112031)	2/2/2002 9:28:16 AM
From: Keith Feral	Respond to of 152472

Reinflating the economy with more cash infusion will not offset the trend in deflation. We need to eliminate unnessary competition. In telcom, I think re-inflation will occur as companies shift their services from analog (phone line) to digital (wireless) services. The excess capacity in the wired phone market became excessively negative over the past few years, since regulators forced ATT and other telecom companies like VZ to sell excess capacity to their competition. As competition shifts to the wireless market for improved digital services offering mobility and last mile solutions, the voice and data traffic is being shifted to a market with finite capacity resources. VZ won't have to worry about selling it's extra capcity to the competition anymore. The shift to wireless gives the telecom giants full control of their market again. < I think the biggest threat to the US economic recovery is the rise in interest rates as the Govt becomes a seller of bonds and the dollar slides versus the Euro this will lead to a gradual decline in bonds and dollar it will partly encouraged by PrezBush but these trends are hard to stop, once started> If the FED sells bonds, they are a net purchaser of dollars. Increased demand for the dollar would not have any direct relationship between the dollar and the Euro. If anything, the purchasing parity theory for currency would suggest that higher US interest rates would increase the value of the dollar.