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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Davy Crockett who wrote (7022)	2/2/2002 10:38:27 PM
From: Davy Crockett	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

GOLD m1.mny.co.za

To: Davy Crockett who wrote (7022)	2/3/2002 12:30:32 AM
From: gold$10k	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Hi Peter, The guys at ContraryInvestor have been right on for the two years that I've been following them. Here's a quote of theirs from May 10, 2000... “Bear markets are a process of confidence destruction.” The reduction in equity fund inflows is symptomatic of this. Having doggedly pursued the gold market for the past 3 years, I am still stamped with the lack of confidence that the sector will really do anything sustained. Here are two pieces of posts from that time which I saved because they compared the hopelessness of the late 90's gold situation to the anguish in equities in the very early '80s... "To be fair, one could have started pounding the table in 1980 arguing that common stocks were a great buy. Until August 1982, that person would also have looked like a fool and everyone would have said "when has this guy ever been right." Certainly history would have been on the side of the nay sayers since most stocks had been in a major down trend (in inflation-adjusted terms) for well over a decade. Still, looking back, stocks purchased at the high in 1980 would be almost as valuable today as those purchased at the low in 1982, and the rate of return over the ensuing 19 years would still be phenomenal. I think that many will look back at gold prices in 1997 to 1999 and wonder why they couldn't muster the courage to buy at what may turn out to be once-in-a-generation low prices" "I mentioned to you earlier that the US equity market went through this type of vicious Bear Market in 1981-1982. Commodity prices and Interest Rates were falling and yet the S@P kept on falling for no good fundamental reason. It was selling that had its root in the Greatest Despair, in Tears, Heartache and utter Hopelessness that the next Bull Market would come in the 21st Century." I would like to see what the equity fund inflows were in the 70s and early 80s... probably mostly negative as the market stayed in a giant trading range for 16 years. I have been and am still expecting a similar performance in equities this decade to get that market to the state of despair required to begin a new secular bull market. Meanwhile, gold should be fun. <g> Regards, vt