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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (10092)	2/5/2002 6:54:14 AM
From: nsumir81	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

imo the Inflation that we see is not indicative of of an economic recovery as it seemed to be implied. It does not seem that way, since I saw it to be concentrated in 3 components in the median CPI which is education, healthcare and rental costs. It is rather misleading, I think. There is deflation in other sectors like tech etc. Seeing permanent ubiquitous sale/clearance signs in the malls. If biz is so good, why the promotions? Sure it is inventory correction, but that only borrows from the future, since demand in the end no matter how goosed up it can be, is finite and limited. Hence the production/capex cutbacks. I noticed the markdowns first in November 2000 when my girlfriend was shopping for a leather jacket. Then it seemed like wow, these are some bargains! Also in the auto sector. Severe pressure on pricing. No leverage on pricing whatsoever at least for the rest of the year. See PC prices too. CPUs are being priced lower too (hitherto untouched until last year) Nevermind, Pentium 4..Intel has migrated to P4 (backed by Celerons with no premium pricing for the former) shows 'demand' for P4 (taken from PIII). See this on CPQ channel stuffing relative to Dell. From yesterday... 16:20 ET DELL Dell Computer: competitors stuffing the channel? (26.84 +0.04) -- Update -- During their Goldman Sachs technology symposium presentation, DELL President Rollins was coy when asked if HWP and CPQ were "stuffing the channel"; he said that he didn't know, but that something "suspicious" was going on in the consumer segment and Europe, as he didn't see any measurable uptick in industry demand despite CPQ's recent claim that those areas were doing very well. It makes sense that since in a shrinking pie, Dell is doing better, so how come CPQ claims it is growing market share too? Why ELSE would Intel, Sprint, Verizon, ATT, WCOM, GM, F, you name it is cutting back on Capex, (and now even TSM etc ) and that too significantly? Debt loads combined with profit pressures (real cash flow), and sluggish markets are the story here. This was a simple question asked in January 2001 when folks were shouting that the 2nd half of '01 would show a recovery(again same story now as in 2000..remember the WIN 2K upgrade cycle story/Presidential rally for Bush which we got and lost promptly?). That is..if business indeed would be good and that a recovery would be there, why were companies laying off people then in early 2001 and to that magnitude? Unless the real smart money ie Corporate America returns, the bull will not come back. The smart money has exited the market imo (insiders advised and aided by brokerages) But looking forward the next few days, it seems that we could have a fair-sized rally into CSCO (ahrs on Wednesday) and somewhat into options expiration. After that, I dunno.