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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (14519)	2/5/2002 12:32:04 PM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Ray: Well I decided to prove my point about cod population recovery on the Grand Banks so I created a nice little Excel model to prove my point. Unfortunately the model proved yours, Ray. It turns out that there is a critical reproduction rate net of predation - about 30%, though this will differ based on assumptions of average fish longevity (I assumed 10 years with sexual maturity at 5 years) - below which the cod population never recovers. This means that if for every 10 sexually mature cod you do not have 13+ one year later you are out of business. What this says is that there is a critical population level below which thou shalt not go if you like eating (insert preferred marine creature here). The solution of course is to figure out what's preying on the immature cod and start fishing for that in order to increase the cod net reproduction rate. Do you think we can talk the Newfoundland fishermen into fishing for (whatever eats little cod) for ten years or so without getting paid?