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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AK2004 who wrote (70845)	2/6/2002 11:40:33 PM
From: milo_morai	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Doesn't UMC make nForce or is that TMSC? With all the Chipsets out for Athlon I don't seeing that happening again. Here's a sample listing of a local DIY shop enuinc.com M.

To: AK2004 who wrote (70845)	2/7/2002 12:24:23 AM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Just reading the transcript of BofA conference on JC's site, and this part kind of stinks: We started our conversion to 130 nanometers in Dresden last quarter. First shipments will be made this quarter to customers. In terms of starts we expect to cross over next quarter or be more than 50% converted and conservatively will be completely converted by Q4 of this year. jc-news.com The 130nm schedule seems to be like Palomino. AMD talked about shipments to customers (which is not you and me, but HP or Compaq) in Q1. The laptops for sale did not appear until middle of Q2. Now about shifting wafer starts from 180 to 130 nm, if we assume that on January 1, 2002 we were more or less at 0, April 1 at 25%, July 1 at 50%, September 1 at 75% and January 1 2003 at 100%. Now from this, it doesn't look that AMD will have much .13u capacity left for desktop CPUs in 1H 2002. I am sure that after notebooks, Athlon MP will be second in line for .13u, and we will be lucky if desktop chips are introduced in June. I think AMD's unit marketshare will decline both in Q1 and Q2, since .18u Athlons probably have 1 speed grade left, at most, and 1 speed grade more or less just catches up with NW 2.2 GHz. I think it is time for the next quarterly roadmap reshuffling. We can pretty much just shift everything to the right by 1 quarter. Joe PS: On the bright side, the higher ASPs of mobile chips may offset market share losses on desktop. PPS: Things to watch for now is any sign of .13u announcment / shipments. 37 days of this quarter are gone, 53 days left in the quarter. The clock is ticking. For every day that passes with no progress on .13u, the hire the losses will be in Q1, and lower the possibility of profit in Q2. Joe