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Strategies & Market Trends : ahhaha's ahs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ahda who wrote (4001)	2/12/2002 11:09:40 AM
From: Ahda	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24758

-http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020212/business_economy_nber_dc_1.html------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tuesday February 12, 10:40 am Eastern Time Recession Arbiter Says Downturn Not Over WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Despite budding signs the worst may be over for the U.S. economy, most key data remain at levels indicative of recession, according to a panel of economists deemed the country's recession arbiter. Many private economists believe the world's largest economy is poised for a recovery, albeit a slow one. But even if the end is near or already upon the United States, the six highly regarded economists on the National Bureau of Economic Research's business cycle dating committee said in a memo released on the group's Web site on Monday that they would wait months before declaring it an economic pivot point. The NBER, which declared in November that the record 10-year U.S. expansion turned into a recession last March, a contraction deepened by the impact of the Sept. 11 attacks. ``Despite the substantial decline in employment throughout the economy -- equal in percentage terms to the declines seen in previous recessions -- output fell less than is typical in a recession because of unusual productivity growth,'' the NBER said. Doesn't seem to unusual to me. A little help never hurts anyone. econedlink.org The latest productivity data indicate that businesses are adapting to the slowing growth in total output that has occurred over the past few quarters by adjusting the hours worked. Employment has been relatively stable and thus businesses must be adjusting the hours worked by each employee. In the second quarter, output in the nonfarm business sector actually decreased (-0.5 %) and hours of employees decreased at a slightly faster pace (-2.6%). Thus, the rise in productivity was 2.1 % (-0.5% + 2.6% = 2.1%). See the latest Unemployment case for a description of recent changes in employment.