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To: Wayners who wrote (38356)2/8/2002 6:04:40 PM
From: Larry S.  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 53068
 
<<Does this meet your criteria?>> - no, not by any means. the re-opening of the plants was planned from the time they shut them down, as i understand it. They just had too much inventory of fiber optic material and just didn't need to produce any more until the inventory was sold down.
Look at the 5 year chart of GLW: finance.yahoo.com In August of 1997, Corning announced that "the growth rate of fiber sales was slowing" - they also terrible mishandled the spin on this. the stock dropped from (pre-split) 75 down to about 24. ( 3:1 split in 2000, in post split dollars that would be from 25 down to 8). That was the time of Asian contagion, etc. When Corning finally recovered from that, it ran from 24 to over 100 in less than two years.
In early 2001, The CEO again mentioned a slowing in the rate of fiber. And the stock sold down from the 80 area and continued down to the lows we saw this week in the 6's.
What I mean by Corning taking off, is when there is real evidence that the demand for fiber is increasing, and Corning will have to start expanding production from the low levels they will be at when the plants are re-opened. Keep in mind that production was stopped, nada, kaput. It is an extreme measure to shut down the lines completely.
My personal estimate for Corning's price is 30-40's sometime in the next 2-4 years. I believe it is very doable. GLW will remain dead money, and be in the 6-11 trading range until there is signs of real growth of demand in their sector. larry longer term chart: quote.yahoo.com