Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Larry S. who wrote (38359)	2/8/2002 7:14:17 PM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

Tice's Prudent Bear on PVN: Providian Financial (motto: "You breathe, you qualify"), reported a Q4 net loss of $1.39, compared to the prior year when it made 76 cents.

To: Larry S. who wrote (38359)	2/9/2002 8:28:34 AM
From: Joe Stocks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53068

>>My personal estimate for Corning's price is 30-40's sometime in the next 2-4 years. << I don't see that. I don't know where you expect to see the extra growth to come from to justify that price level. GLW has nearly 1 bil shares outstanding. Revenues will probably linger not much higher than what they are now, for the next few years or about $4-5 billion (back to 1999 levels). Figuring a very generous 8% net profit that's 40 cents a share max. 20 times earnings is $8.00 a share. 2 x max sales gives you a price of about $10 per share. Add in some irrational exuberance and the very top price is closer to $20 during extreme optimism. 2-4 years out I predict an average sale price closer to $15 for this company that really doesn't have much pricing power and who's revenues come much from commodity type products. I also believe that GLW is more than fairly priced at this level. Maybe a little high looking at projected earnings. Also priced at more than book and almost 2x sales they look rich. The only reason I see them move much higher is because they were much higher before. That said, the a trade here more off of emotions but not an investment op off of valuation. Just my opinion. Joe