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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (14699)	2/9/2002 9:43:00 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

DAK: I've now got a good look at the charts: Message 17040766 As you see I am bearish on gold for the next few months, but then very bullish- the charts work perfectly for an alternation between gold and stocks. So what I will be looking to do is use gold stocks as well as shorting as part of my crash strategy. But I don't think that the enxt crash phase will arrive for a few months. Still I am always on the look out for a new view. I checked my margin lenders stock and fund list. There are no current gold stock mutual funds allowed - AXA Gold Fund which is listed no longer appears on the AXA website... strange... On stocks they allow (I ignore Normandy) the following with ASX code and margin ratio: Newcrest NCM 60% Anglogold AGG 50% Gympie Gold GYM 40% Sons of Gwalia SGW 65% Lihir LIH 55% Ashanti Goldfields AHA 40% Of these Lihir and Newcrest are optionable on the ASX. Only Newcrest is shortable. I don't like the sound of PNG, Ghana, or South Africa for that matter. So that leaves: Newcrest NCM 60% Gympie Gold GYM 40% Sons of Gwalia SGW 65% Newcrest would seem to be the candidate. Then I check the P/E and it is 33.3 which seems high. Lihir is 17.7 and SGW 15.6. DO these reflect hedging policy perhaps. I need to look into that. If Newcrest is unhedged it has the same P/E as unhedged Newmont. I can't remember what I've read on this. Sons of Gwalia and Anglogold have a 3% dividend yield - Sons of Gwalia would have a tax advantage to Aussie Investors though. Newcrest has only a 1% dividend yield. This fits with the P/E. Lihir doesn't seem to have a dividend. That's the first step in my research. Need to do a lot more. I'm guessing I'm going to find that SGW is hedged. Otherwise it looks attractive at this stage. Any info from you will be much appreciated! David