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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (14757)	2/9/2002 11:54:41 PM
From: Don Lloyd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

AC - Thanks for the extensive information. So there you have it, the future of the POG laid out before you. Gold price to move in a band of $280/oz to $320/oz., followed by a gradual uptrend from 2003 or so. If this is the range based on the response of supply to the fact of the gold price approaching one edge of the range or the other, the fact that the responses will be spread over time implies the likelihood of dynamic overshoots in both directions being possible. Plus or minus 10% beyond the edges of the range would seem to be consistent with what we've already seen. Regards, Don

To: AC Flyer who wrote (14757)	2/10/2002 1:37:20 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Were gold prices strongly correlated to production costs in 1980? I see gold at $1000 and Dow at 5000 NAS at 750... but then the gold boom will fail and stocks will return.... But first Dow 13000 NAS 3000 Gold 275 David PS Nikkei at 5000.... but first 11000...

To: AC Flyer who wrote (14757)	2/10/2002 9:08:13 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Mike, thanks for the notes on gold. If true, then offers a solid basis to keep selling naked puts and covered calls on mining shares, and makes a case for gradual accumulation as fixed % of NAV until the day the notes are no longer true. Chugs, Jay

To: AC Flyer who wrote (14757)	2/11/2002 3:37:35 AM
From: FR1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

A few things to consider: Under the worst case scenario, the maximum downside for gold price is $200/oz That's a considerable drop from where we are. Gold production costs have fallen by an average of $13/oz. each year since 1990 And they may fall even faster as time goes on. The technology used to find and mine gold is getting better and better. I once saw a piece on some of the latest gadgets used in screening mine walls for gold - very impressive. Someone once reported the amount of gold in seawater and it amazed me. Tons of it in the rivers of Alaska. The problem is developing the technology for sifting it out (which they are working on). Who knows what the future will bring. Another item to consider is the introduction of new metallic compounds from the chemical engineers. Nanotechnology might make a lot of the need for gold obsolete. Gold is a great conductor of electricity but the new types of circuits might not need it. So, in general, the need for gold might fall as the ability to mine it increases. You could wind up with a metal whose primary demand is from jewelry collectors (and they might not be interested as the price drops).