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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marcos who wrote (14842)	2/11/2002 1:37:31 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

<In another post you ask what caused PoG of 800US in 1980 ... speculation, that's what ... 'the trend is your friend' taken to extremes as always, people were quoting it as gospel on ridiculous dot.bombs not long ago ... once an undeniable confirmation of PoG bull occurs, the whole psychology changes ... and changes, and changes, and changes, plus ca change, plus la meme chose> Marcos, that's called Bubbleonia where the Greater Fool Theory ruins hordes of ignorant get rich quick dreamers. The dot.coms and telecosmic hopes formed the last bubble where greater fools rushed in, but in the end, swarms were left high and dry. Those who think Uncle Al caused the bubble are fooling themselves. They'll be sucked in by the golden bubble too because they don't realize that Uncle Al had little to do with the Y2K Nasdaq 5000 dot.nosebleed peak. If people don't understand that it's mob mentality that drives bubbles, then they are at risk of being in the next one - especially since buying gold is like giving the fingers to Uncle Al [in their foolish minds]. As gold goes through $400 an ounce, they'll be patting themselves on the back for knowing that Uncle Al was a loser with a loser fiat currency who caused the bubble in the stockmarket. They will buy more at $350 and $400 because they'll see "$1000 any day now" as the horde gets more and more excited and foams at the mouth more and more. There's one born every minute. Barbarian Aztecs will be barbecued by the dozen. Plus ca change, Mqurice

To: marcos who wrote (14842)	2/11/2002 1:50:31 AM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

>>To use gold as money you can just simply use it<< Fine in theory, very difficult and impractical in practice, for a host of reasons. >>In a previous post you say if the PoG rises then so will production .... well sure, for a while ... then where will producing majors get their reserves? .... they've been creaming them in the low-price environment, every day bigger holes in ground and less metal ... gold is quite rare on this planet<< Unfortunately that's just not true. The higher the POG, the more gold is economically recoverable. Supply will inexorably rise with rising price. >>In another post you ask what caused PoG of 800US in 1980 ... speculation, that's what<< Also not true. Speculation probably caused the blowoff to $800, but the initial momentum was created by high inflation and a 25% collapse in the value of the US$. This was explained very well by another poster a couple of posts ago. These conditions are conspicuously absent in the US today.