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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (150716)	2/12/2002 9:38:11 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Skeeter- Employment is a lagging indicator. Remember how companies were still hiring while the stocks were all starting to fall? Same thing happens in reverse at bottoms. Companies are always behind the curve when it comes to employment and capital spending. Recent memory is their guide, and they extrapolate that into the future via a straight line- so they don't hire or spend until they get more orders. Then they fall behind because they can't keep up with the demand- so they overhire and overspend because they again extrapolate the recent past into the future, and expect business will keep growing. Then the cycle repeats. ad infinitum. If they only taught sine waves to business students, maybe more of them would get it right. <g> Some leading indicators are interest rates, liquidity, and the stock market of course.. Keep Hope Alive, Whoever Hope is. <g> TW