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Strategies & Market Trends : Mr. Pink's Picks: selected event-driven value investments -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter V who wrote (16309)	2/17/2002 11:01:16 PM
From: Phil(bullrider)	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18998

Peter, Joe Yurman, a Bear Stearns analyst who maintains a "buy" rating and $60-$62 price target, agrees that there is a need for more specific disclosure from Harley. At the same time, however, he pointed out that the financing business comprises less than 2 percent of the company's total operating income - and that it has substantially increased the percentage of purchases financed without any meaningful uptick in delinquencies or write-offs. "We would expect the stock to sell-off on this, as bears will likely focus on the lack of transparency of the [financing] business, particularly acute during this crisis in confidence with corporate governance in general," he said, as he strongly emphasized his belief that Harley is not hiding anything. While dealer inventories have indeed increased, any pile-up in the showrooms due to a combination of factors, including seasonal softness in sales - motorcycles are unusable in much of the country right now - and planned production boosts. "The company has increased production capacity to narrow the spread that dealers are charging above MSRP and mitigating the likelihood of a lost sale," Yurman said. More important, "every dealer we speak with believes that he can sell any bike he gets." Ultimately, "the timing of this article is consistent with our belief that as we move into slower winter months, such bearish anecdotes would begin to pop up as many look to fill in the information void between reporting periods." I guess we should be expected to believe a sell-side analyst when we cannot even believe certified and bonded auditors. Have fun, Phil