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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 4rthofjuly007 who wrote (30973)	2/13/2002 9:00:16 AM
From: Mike M	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

You aren't going to get much of a response from the "perma" bears on this one. From the chart it looks like most of the bear activity is behind us. Of course, there will still remain much mashing of teeth over the next few years. I don't think the Dow or S&P have paid enough price yet and the comparison suggests that more wringing out is in store. There has, however, been a healthy "deflation" of equity prices and, yet, there has not been an economic capitulation. Many consumers have begun to deal with debt while consumer spending has not fallen off a cliff. CAPEX will be a thorn in business side for some time, however, from this will emerge the next generations winners and losers...So what else is new. The last chapter hasn't yet been written and there are any number of ways we can traverse. For every argument that the bears make regarding the expensive valuation of the market an equally compelling argument can be made regarding liquidity and limited alternative opportunities for capital investment. 401K money has to be put to work and there are only so many fixed investment options. Moreover, Social Security investment will likely eventually become a reality. To ignore the innovative possibilities that abound in a country full of entrepreneurs leads one to desperate "group think" and probably down the wrong road. IMO, the easy money from the short side has been made. From here on it is a fairly even dog fight. Markets will almost certainly be both lower and higher from this point and all the pessimism in the world from the dark hole thinkers merely increases the likelihood of upside surprises. Just a dissenting opinion.