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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (1950)	2/13/2002 5:31:20 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95966

RtS, A very good day today, but as you say, the jury is still out on further advances. <<Don, I would not be too sure about a sustained move higher just yet. I am not seeing a great deal of strength outside of the biggest names here within the SOX. I think shorting AMAT may not be the safest prospect for a long term investor but I believe there is a greater than 50% probability that the stock will be lower than its current 47.85 by this time next week. More than likely I would expect at least 45 by that time. Just like CSCO is proposing to take market share from competitors so is AMAT. Eventually current reality prevails and investors realize that the actual amount of business to be divided is smaller than what should be necessary to support such high P/E multiples.>> I agree with your view. Certainly I can't believe it is all "onward and upward" from here. I don't short stocks so I am not shorting AMAT, but I will be looking for a point to get in again to go long. AMAT has been slightly weaker that KLAC and NVLS for some time, but I am not sure this is going to continue. It may be that AMAT will become a little stronger in the future compared to its recent past. They have a lot of resources and have been using this recent down period to prepare for the future. That has been their mode of operation in past down turns, no reason to think they have not maintained this approach in the latest down turn. They didn't get to be #1 in the semi-equip group by being a shrinking violet.<gg> The next 2 days should be interesting - will AMAT go "up" for the next 2 days, or is it going to take a little "rest" here? I'm betting for a retrenchment here for the NASDAQ, SOX and the semi-equip group, at least by the end of next week. Don