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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (1953)2/13/2002 6:33:50 PM
From: Return to Sender  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95966
 
The SOX pushed up to its upper Bollinger Band today closing essentially at the high for the day.

stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb50,200!d20,2][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Uk14]&pref=G

In the absence of bad news the group is likely to extend its gains at the open tomorrow. As a whole the group is now quite overbought. Personally although I would not profit greatly from a move back to 600 on the SOX I would still like to see it happen. That sets us up for further advances in the future.

The trouble is that the upper Bollinger Band and with any further advance the increasingly high RSI both point to a retrenchment before that can happen. We could still see the SOX go higher but even the most bullish of long term fundamental investors has a weak argument for chasing these stocks here. Earnings announcements are now winding down. Where will additional fuel come from to extend this rally which has happened for the most part on light volume?

To me 521 on the SOX seems a more likely number that we will see before 600.

But I have been wrong many times before.... RtS