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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (60452)	2/13/2002 3:20:07 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, Of the 5 potential triggers of an Oct 2001 retest that you identified, you seem to have dismissed all except for the exogenous shock of war with Iraq and valuations. Given that Bagdad was once the flower of Islamic civilization and that it will be extremely difficult to get moderate Muslim regimes on board such a coalition absent some act as daring or more so than 911, what probability would you really ascribe to the Iraq war scenario within the next 12 months? I think that your valuation concerns are a much more likely inhibitor of market gains. Sam

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (60452)	2/13/2002 3:32:10 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, RE: Finally I am hoping the war against iraq will not to be fought the way you describe it. In my most optimistic scenario, I expect the cia/special ops types to be involved. I believe Sadaam will take a bullet, hopefully the only bullet fired in anger. Amnesty then for those running the show there, with most leaving government to retirememt on the Riviera. New interim government broadly representing competing interests. Elections to follow in a year or so. Iraq needs to remain as an intact country to prevent a vacuum in the area. And of course no more weapons of MD. A guy can hope! mike