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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (36168)	2/14/2002 3:15:30 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70280

[madtrader] Wed Feb 13, 2:20pm PST $VIX.X I may be jumping the gun here, so take it with a grain of salt. I wrote a few days ago that I really don't believe the "low" reading of VIX at this particular point in the market is an outright bearish signal. I am not suggesting people to be dismissive about it either. I believe that based on long term trends, VIX is due to fall below the 20s and oscillate in the teens for the coming few years. Because that was the case for most of the last 17 years. But let's get back to the short term picture here. The reason I said I might be jumping the gun is the fact we still have 2 more trading days to go. As we stand now, on the weekly candlestick chart, VIX has developed a clear bearish engulfing candle. In order for this not be the case by the end of this trading week, VIX would have to close above 24.35 on Friday. Otherwise, this is a clear signal that the VIX is heading lower still. I know for some people this is even more reason to be concerned. We will have to wait and see what happens. none. [RumorDude] Wed Feb 13, 12:57pm PST BA I still like the medium term graph here, but the RSI is triggering a short term overbought here. That given my "macro view" some tankage is ahead, I'll slide this up and and take some profits. Sell to close Mar 42.5 BA calls, Buy to open 2/5 as many the Mar 45 BA calls. [RumorDude] Wed Feb 13, 12:51pm PST $VIX.X Volume I keep saying it, but this is really one to watch. The VIX is getting dangerously low and the volume on these past few up-days has been light to medium at best. As we go into options expiration this week, I'd expect volatility to increase -- meaning prices are going down. none