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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nsumir81 who wrote (10485)	2/15/2002 5:34:23 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 19219

Wrong. Nobody knew earnings peaked in April 2000 until 3 to 6 months later AFTER the technicals had already LEAD THE DOWNTURN. DOW peaked in Jan 2000 and Naz peaked in March 2000. Nice try though. How could anyone have known April earnings were the peak until the next quarters earnings were to come out 3 MONTHS LATER in JULY? Got comparisons? Technical analysis leads, fundamentals analysis lags, follows and confirms. Best Regards, J.T.

To: nsumir81 who wrote (10485)	2/16/2002 8:28:23 AM
From: sun-tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

dead on accurate post imo.

To: nsumir81 who wrote (10485)	2/16/2002 9:12:13 AM
From: dvdw©	Respond to of 19219

Nsumir: You said: I still can not understand why folks still believe in that early 2000 high as something driven by fundamentals/short covering alone. It was driven by an excess of LIQUIDITY which one may count as part of the fundamental (or technical) picture (end of '98 rate cuts and then the Y2K liquidity shot in late '99) that topped off an already ebullient market that had been running for many years. Also mass mania/psychology that fed on itself and the media. This is part true: As a specialists in Small caps, the liquidity that propelled most of these started only in fall of 99 Take the Internet stocks out of the equation and you'll understand an entirely different market. The VC created excesses need to be separated from the mostly liquidity starved small caps who were truly all trading at 96 & 98 lows when capital only came in during fall 99.So their price per share expansion lasted from OCT to April, a short cycle compared to the general market.97/98 and most of 99 were hugely rewarding to the nifty 50 and certain S&P companies, healthcare and drug stocks, it was a liquidity starved market for the rest. This was the recognition wave of a bull market for many of these companies. Now nearly two years later and hugely improved fundamentals, many Small caps are right back to 96 & 98 price levels. The Broader market is rotating capital. My bet is that many small cap tech companies, & defense contractors will lead the next wave up, not only are these companies closer to graduating to mid cap status, the market has evidence of fundamentals lining up with them, many needed infrastructure, or installed bases of other factors to precede a genuine sustained move, now that time has come. Small caps in particular are looking very strong here, money is moving in on the cheap to buy em up. Discconnect from the broad market to get into the details of these companies and you'll see the evidence.