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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (10488)	2/15/2002 5:59:33 PM
From: nsumir81	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

What is this talk that the market moves up before/ahead of a pickup in earnings/business momentum?. The market is a discounter. Why do folks (sometimes in the know/sometimes guessing/sometimes following) buy a stock ahead of an ACTUAL ANNOUNCEMENT of a pickup in say earnings or sell stocks ahead of the actual announcements of shortfalls? So the market started selling off AHEAD of the ACTUAL earnings drop (if one can even say that the market drop was due to earnings drop in any large part). The market (market participants in the know) senses. The exact time frames of the peaks of the DOW and the NAZ..sure how could they be similar? Ever? Even in the March-April 2001 lows the Dow and S&P put in lows around 3/22 whereas the NAZ put in lows on 4/4 with the first two indices putting in successful higher low retests on 4/4. Bear market rallies come out of those hopes of a change in fundamentals. Sometimes the bets are correct. Else who cares about the economy, retail sales, inflation etc and the companies that these stocks are supposed to represent? For all their disconnect, stocks are still connected with the underlying companies and fundamentals that they represent. Hence the market.

To: J.T. who wrote (10488)	2/15/2002 7:58:56 PM
From: Dominick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Technical analysis leads, fundamentals analysis lags, follows and confirms. I'll drink to that! Dominick

To: J.T. who wrote (10488)	2/16/2002 9:54:24 PM
From: At_The_Ask	Respond to of 19219

I think the problem was that the last manic buyer had bought, and there's only one way to go after that. I'm sure some recognized the bubble for what it was and began selling out. Nice try though. How could anyone have known April earnings were the peak until the next quarters earnings were to come out 3 MONTHS LATER in JULY? Got comparisons? The prices then weren't reasonably based on earnings by any standard metric. Even now the market is more highly priced than at the peak. Unless you belive earnings are going to jump 50% this year.