Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Win Smith who wrote (18902)	2/15/2002 9:44:12 PM
From: tekboy	Respond to of 281500

yeah, I agree with both points. but still, it struck me as a thorough discussion of an important trend. tb@theothertwoarebetter.com

To: Win Smith who wrote (18902)	2/16/2002 1:20:40 AM
From: frankw1900	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Now, what are the odds on Washington adding that particular element? As far as I can recall, W's answer to the relatively simple policy move of increasing automotive CAFE goals was some pie-in-the-sky hydrogen fuel cells "in 10 years" thing. I'm not so sure it's totally pie in the sky even if Bush might think so. Fool around with some numbers: compare the cost of reducing demand by x% over y years with that of increasing production x% over the same period. Remember that at industrial level of output a fuel cell drive train will probably cost less than internal combustion and that FC's are lots more efficient. Look at the table on p. 18 and extrapolate the concept. ase.org Instead of IC vehiicles imagine some significant portion of the automotive fleet were FC by 2020 and that FC vehicles are were about twice as efficient .... And you might see a lesson in the law of unintended consequences. I think US should go with hot CAFE numbers, and a consumption tax, and the fuel cell program, but failing the first two, push the FC's because a new technology development tends to accelerate as acceptance picks up (eg. integrated circuits) while folk extrapolate in a straight line. A better example would be the proliferation of the automobile between 1900 and 1920 and then between 1920 and 1930. A flat income tax and a consumption tax would work best and the fuel cells would look after themselves. But remember it was Nixon went to China, not some Dem. Don't count W out on this. Early days yet. Also in terms of US market the middle east price of oil can't go too high because there's an awful lot of oil in Northern Canada. I know the stuff is fungible but N Canada is a lot closer and cost of production there is falling.