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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (19021)	2/17/2002 12:08:24 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Perhaps you're thinking of Herman Kahn, who came up with lots of similar stuff, or maybe Thomas Schelling... Hmmm... never knew people had dedicated time to actually studying the use of irrational behavior to attain logical goals in foreign policy. But it makes sense. Most of the stuff I had read was based around the concept of "brinksmanship", zero and non-zero sum gaming strategies, and the personal elements that guided various policy decisions. The use of irrational threats, very similar to brinksmanship, was always kind of a "given" to me, ever since Reagan came into office and achieved the release of the hostages in Iran, presumably on the premise that the Iranians had come to the conclusion that retaining them was not worth the risk of having Reagan escalate the situation beyond the level where they attained political benefits. That's what's so fascinating about foreign policy... how the few make life and death decisions for the many, both unilaterally, and often as a response to popular sentiment. Leaders constantly performing political calculations about what they can achieve, and what they can't, and the steps they are willing to take to achieve them. And example of this that immediately comes to mind is the Cuban missile crisis. The Russians put missiles in Cuba and we balked. But what was never really discussed was that NATO had Jupiter missiles sitting in Turkey. fas.org But rather than just agree to negotiate the removal of the Jupiters, JFK was willing to take both nations to the brink of war. They were later removed from Turkey a few months later, as I recall. But for a time period there, life and death decisions were being made, not on the basis of diplomatic logic, but irrational bravado, bluster, and sheer testosterone. And in that case, the Russians blinked. Hawk